TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 29 Oct 2026

Julián Alvarez

Atlético Madrid → Arsenal

81%Very likely
Probability
81%
Viability
69%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low

Why this score?

Probability72 → 81|Viability69 → 6922 Sept 2026

  • ▪An agreement is reported to be close
  • ▪A formal bid has been reported
  • ▪Multiple independent sources agree
  • ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  • ▪The player's preference is reported to favour the move

Score movement

  1. 22 Sept 202672 → 81An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  2. 04 Sept 202672 → 72Window closed with no completed deal on record for this player. Expired, not graded — no completed transfer exists either way, and our data has coverage gaps, so no source's accuracy is moved on an ambiguity.
  3. 02 Sept 202675 → 72An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  4. 30 Aug 202672 → 75An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  5. 28 Aug 202681 → 72An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  6. 09 Aug 202680 → 81An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  7. 08 Aug 202680 → 80An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  8. 06 Aug 202677 → 80An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  9. 31 Jul 202654 → 77An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  10. 18 Jul 202641 → 54An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  11. 04 Jul 2026— → 41This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+16 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+8 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+6 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability81%

Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
ST
Age
26
Nationality
Italy
Contract until
30 Jun 2030
Market value
€100m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs
ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.)
€120m
Wage headroom
65/100
PSR pressure
35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 30 Jun 2026Tier 3Football Londonpolled

    I wanted Arsenal transfer – Julian Alvarez should do exactly what I did to get dream move

    unknown · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 18 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Arsenal get Julian Alvarez transfer update as significant offer is confirmed

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  3. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4Football365polled

    Arsenal ‘reach agreement’ to sign Julian Alvarez in stunning swap as transfer accelerates

    agreement close · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  4. 23 Jul 2026Tier 2The Telegraphpolled

    Julian Alvarez next club odds: Arsenal move on the cards?

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  5. 24 Jul 2026Tier 3Football Londonpolled

    Arsenal ready to sacrifice top star in blockbuster Julian Alvarez transfer deal

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  6. 24 Jul 2026Tier 4Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal readying player-plus-cash offer in mega Julian Alvarez transfer bid

    bid submitted · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  7. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4TEAMtalkpolled

    Arsenal confident they'll strike agreements to sign Julian Alvarez from Atletico Madrid - Exclusive

    interest · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  8. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal get two green lights to proceed with Julian Alvarez transfer in record-breaking deal

    unknown · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  9. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal get two green lights to proceed with Julian Alvarez transfer in record-breaking deal

    unknown · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  10. 02 Aug 2026Tier 4TEAMtalkpolled

    Arteta reacts to Arsenal signing Vinicius and Alvarez, and selling Gyokeres

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  11. 02 Aug 2026Tier 4TEAMtalkpolled

    Arteta reacts to Arsenal signing Vinicius and Alvarez, and selling Gyokeres

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  12. 07 Aug 2026Tier 4Pain In The Arsenalpolled

    Why Julian Alvarez transfer can heal Arsenal's Vinicius Junior pain

    interest · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  13. 07 Aug 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal signing 'confirmed', Alvarez deal; Man Utd signing

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  14. 07 Aug 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal signing 'confirmed', Alvarez deal; Man Utd signing

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  15. 08 Aug 2026Tier 4TEAMtalkpolled

    Arsenal learn Atletico Madrid decision on selling Julian Alvarez for €150m

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  16. 09 Aug 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal news: £85million move back on the agenda as Julian Alvarez transfer update issued

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  17. 09 Aug 2026Tier 4AOL.co.ukpolled

    Arsenal news: £85million move back on the agenda as Julian Alvarez transfer update issued

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  18. 09 Aug 2026Tier 3Football Londonpolled

    Arsenal latest: Julian Alvarez update issued as £85million transfer interest revived

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  19. 09 Aug 2026Tier 4Dailystar.co.ukpolled

    Arsenal news: Julian Alvarez transfer update clear as £85m signing back on the cards

    interest · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  20. 09 Aug 2026Tier 4Daily Starpolled

    Arsenal news: Julian Alvarez transfer update clear as £85m signing back on the cards

    interest · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  21. 09 Aug 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Diego Simeone confirms Julian Alvarez transfer 'decision' amid Arsenal interest

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  22. 09 Aug 2026Tier 4Daily Mirrorpolled

    Diego Simeone confirms Julian Alvarez transfer 'decision' amid Arsenal interest

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  23. 10 Aug 2026Tier 3Football Londonpolled

    Arsenal transfer news LIVE: Julian Alvarez stance, '£34m bid', Pio Esposito eyed

    bid submitted · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  24. 10 Aug 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal get significant Julian Alvarez transfer update after Atletico Madrid meeting

    unknown · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  25. 10 Aug 2026Tier 3Football Londonpolled

    When Arsenal will get Julian Alvarez transfer update after new Atletico Madrid development

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  26. 13 Aug 2026Tier 3Football Londonpolled

    Arsenal can get £38m Julian Alvarez transfer discount to rescue dream Andrea Berta deal

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  27. 20 Aug 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled

    Arsenal transfer news LIVE: Gunners in Alvarez 'talks', new striker 'INCOMING', Yildiz update as Arteta dealt 'blow'

    talks · active talkstone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  28. 21 Aug 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal triple deal, Alvarez boost; Man Utd medical

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  29. 21 Aug 2026Tier 4Football365polled

    Arsenal 'complete' £55m signing and Julian Alvarez reaches decision on being next

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  30. 22 Aug 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal triple deal, Alvarez boost; Man Utd medical

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  31. 22 Aug 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal triple deal, Alvarez move; Man Utd medical

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  32. 22 Aug 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled

    Arsenal transfer news LIVE: Ezri Konsa ANNOUNCED, Julian Alvarez update, Gunners close in on Igor Tyjon

    official · officialtone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  33. 22 Aug 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal want Alvarez and Barcola; Liverpool shock

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  34. 23 Aug 2026Tier 3Football Londonpolled

    Julian Alvarez decision confirmed as Arsenal handed transfer update on Atletico Madrid striker

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  35. 23 Aug 2026Tier 3The Independentpolled

    Julian Alvarez met with deafening jeers on Atletico Madrid return amid Arsenal interest

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  36. 24 Aug 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal news: Fresh Julian Alvarez meeting held as update issued on £85m target

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  37. 24 Aug 2026Tier 4Daily Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal news: Fresh Julian Alvarez meeting held as update issued on £85m target

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  38. 24 Aug 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal medical, Alvarez twist; new Man Utd boost

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  39. 24 Aug 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal medicals done, Alvarez talks; Man Utd deal

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  40. 25 Aug 2026Tier 4Football365polled

    Arsenal ‘want to go all in’ for Julian Alvarez as huge ‘green light’ claim is made

    agreement close · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  41. 26 Aug 2026Tier 3The Independentpolled

    Atletico Madrid release furious Julian Alvarez statement amid Arsenal interest

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  42. 26 Aug 2026Tier 4Football365polled

    'Many lies and half-truths' - Atletico fire warning over Arsenal target Julian Alvarez

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  43. 27 Aug 2026Tier 3The Independentpolled

    Atletico Madrid release furious Julian Alvarez statement amid Arsenal interest

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  44. 28 Aug 2026Tier 4Mirrorpolled

    Man City 'ready to rival Arsenal' in transfer race for Atletico Madrid star Julian Alvarez

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  45. 29 Aug 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal transfer news: Julian Alvarez 'being persuaded' as departing star's medical booked

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  46. 29 Aug 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal transfer news: Julian Alvarez 'being persuaded' as departing star's medical booked

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  47. 29 Aug 2026Tier 4Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal transfer news: Julian Alvarez 'being persuaded' as departing star's medical booked

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  48. 29 Aug 2026Tier 4Daily Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal transfer news: Julian Alvarez 'being persuaded' as departing star's medical booked

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  49. 29 Aug 2026Tier 4Dailystar.co.ukpolled

    Arsenal news: Julian Alvarez 'being convinced' to join by Mikel Arteta as medical booked

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  50. 29 Aug 2026Tier 4Daily Starpolled

    Arsenal news: Julian Alvarez 'being convinced' to join by Mikel Arteta as medical booked

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  51. 29 Aug 2026Tier 5CaughtOffsidepolled

    Sources: Arsenal in “dialogue” over signing “incredible” £60m talent as Julian Alvarez alternative

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  52. 29 Aug 2026Tier 3TNT Sportspolled

    David Ornstein on Julian Alvarez latest amid Arsenal links: 'He's spoken to Mikel Arteta, he doesn't want to come'

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  53. 29 Aug 2026Tier 3The Independentpolled

    Fernandez to City? Alvarez to Arsenal? Ten big transfers that could still happen before deadline day

    monitoring · speculativetone: speculativevia rule-based:v1source
  54. 29 Aug 2026Tier 4Football365polled

    Arsenal now 'serious option' for £60m Newcastle target after Alvarez snub

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  55. 30 Aug 2026Tier 3Football Londonpolled

    Arsenal latest: Star signs new contract as Mikel Arteta receives Julian Alvarez deadline

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  56. 03 Sept 2026Tier 4Football365polled

    Arsenal made approach for £73m striker in final days as Alvarez 'chase was up last weekend'

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  57. 03 Sept 2026Tier 4Football365polled

    Arsenal made approach for £73m striker in final days as Alvarez 'chase was up last weekend'

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  58. 21 Sept 2026Tier 4Daily Starpolled

    Julian Alvarez team-mate opens up on future for Atletico Madrid star amid Arsenal interest

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  59. 13 Oct 2026Tier 4Daily Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal news: Mikel Arteta gets boost in £127m race as Julian Alvarez behaviour highlighted

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  60. 26 Oct 2026Tier 4TEAMtalkpolled

    Arsenal learn Atletico Madrid decision on selling Julian Alvarez in January – Exclusive

    monitoring · speculativetone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  61. 26 Oct 2026Tier 4FootballTransfers.compolled

    Arsenal receive huge Julian Alvarez transfer update after official statement

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  62. 26 Oct 2026Tier 4LiveScorepolled

    Arsenal receive huge Julian Alvarez transfer update after official statement

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  63. 27 Oct 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal news: Julian Alvarez January transfer decision and offer for target confirmed

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  64. 27 Oct 2026Tier 4Daily Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal news: Julian Alvarez January transfer decision and offer for target confirmed

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source