The ledger
Who was actually right
Every claim is logged against its source; every graded outcome updates that source’s record. Trust starts at the hand-assigned tier and only becomes empirical after 10 graded outcomes — below that, an accuracy figure is noise and is shown greyed. A source that spews rumours that die accumulates false positives and sinks; one that is mostly right, and early, rises above its tier.
| Source | Type | Tier | Reports | Graded | Accuracy | False positives | Days early | Trust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Ornstein | journalist | 1 | 1 | 32 | 90% | 6% | 8.0 | 95graded |
| Arsenal FC (Official) | official | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 95tier only |
| Florian Plettenberg | journalist | 1 | 0 | 7 | 86%n<10 | 12% | 7.0 | 95tier only |
| Premier League (Official) | official | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 95tier only |
| Fabrizio Romano | journalist | 1 | 2 | 42 | 88% | 9% | 6.0 | 92graded |
| BBC Sport | publication | 2 | 477 | 9 | 78%n<10 | 22% | 2.1 | 78tier only |
| Sky Sports | publication | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 78tier only |
| The Athletic | publication | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 78tier only |
| The Telegraph | publication | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 78tier only |
| Transfermarkt | aggregator | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 78tier only |
| The Guardian | publication | 2 | 114 | 18 | 70% | 22% | 3.4 | 69graded |
| Google News | aggregator | 4 | 2352 | 6 | 83%n<10 | 17% | 2.9 | 40tier only |
| TEAMtalk | aggregator | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0%n<10 | 100% | — | 40tier only |
| Reddit r/soccer | social | 5 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 22tier only |
Trust = 45% tier + 55% record, where record = accuracy − ½·false-positive rate + an early-reporter bonus (capped). Deterministic arithmetic over graded outcomes — no model assigns any of these numbers. “Days early” is a recency-weighted mean, disclosed as such. Official club/league feeds are ground truth and are never graded against themselves.