81Very likely
Julián Alvarez
Atlético Madrid → Arsenal
officialTier 24 sources
69viability
The board
Live rumour ledger
Every probability is a deterministic weighted blend — reproducible, and explained on each rumour’s page. It is an opinion-with-a-formula, not a measured frequency. The model only structures prose into claims; it never picks a number.
Active rumours
74Advanced
Trent Alexander-Arnold
Real Madrid → Liverpool
officialTier 32 sources
67viability
73Advanced
Aaron Long
LAFC → Liverpool
officialTier 32 sources
Blocker: bid rejected
67viability
70Advanced
Neco Williams
Nottingham Forest → Arsenal
officialTier 22 sources
Blocker: bid rejected
51viability
69Advanced
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Paris Saint-Germain → Arsenal
officialTier 32 sources
65viability
68Advanced
Junior Kroupi
Bournemouth → Arsenal
officialTier 4
69viability
67Advanced
Harry Wilson
Fulham → Newcastle United
officialTier 32 sources
57viability
66Advanced
Junior Diaz
Stade Brestois 29 → Liverpool
officialTier 32 sources
66viability
66Advanced
John Victor
Nottingham Forest → Liverpool
officialTier 32 sources
62viability
65Advanced
Erling Haaland
Manchester City → Arsenal
officialTier 32 sources
Also linked: Liverpool 26%
Blocker: release clause in play
65viability
60Active interest
Alex Scott
Bournemouth → Liverpool
officialTier 4
Blocker: bid rejected
55viability
59Active interest
Mario de Luis
Atlético Madrid → Liverpool
officialTier 4
61viability
59Active interest
Will Hughes
Crystal Palace → Liverpool
officialTier 42 sources
61viability
58Active interest
Lewis Hall
Newcastle United → Liverpool
officialTier 42 sources
62viability
55Active interest
Rico Lewis
Manchester City → Newcastle United
officialTier 4
Also linked: Manchester United 28% · Chelsea 7%
Blocker: release clause in play
61viability
54Active interest
Crysencio Summerville
West Ham United → Liverpool
officialTier 4
62viability
52Active interest
Everton
OGC Nice → Everton
officialTier 4
50viability
50Active interest
Can Uzun
Eintracht Frankfurt → Arsenal
officialTier 4
58viability
49Active interest
Matty Cash
Aston Villa → Newcastle United
near completeTier 3
Also linked: Barcelona 17%
56viability
48Active interest
Bruno Fernandes
Manchester United → Liverpool
active talksTier 4
66viability
48Active interest
Yankuba Minteh
Brighton & Hove Albion → Liverpool
active talksTier 42 sources
Blocker: bid rejected
64viability
32Possible
Gary Oliver
Athletic Club → Arsenal
early interestTier 4
60viability
32Possible
Nicolás González
Juventus → Newcastle United
early interestTier 4
51viability
32Possible
Mamadou Camara
Nancy-Lorraine → Liverpool
early interestTier 4
61viability
32Possible
Nick Pope
Newcastle United → Bayern Munich
early interestTier 32 sources
57viability
32Possible
Gabriel Jesus
Barcelona → Arsenal
early interestTier 3
Blocker: bid rejected
69viability
32Possible
Jens Stage
Werder Bremen → Liverpool
early interestTier 5
58viability
32Possible
Noah James
Newcastle United → Liverpool
early interestTier 4
Also linked: Arsenal 22%
61viability
32Possible
Endrick
Real Madrid → Arsenal
early interestTier 4
61viability
32Possible
James Milner
— → Liverpool
early interestTier 4
61viability
28Possible
Rico Lewis
Manchester City → Manchester United
early interestTier 32 sources
Also linked: Newcastle United 55% · Chelsea 7%
Blocker: bid rejected
54viability
26Possible
Erling Haaland
Manchester City → Liverpool
early interestTier 4
Also linked: Arsenal 65%
62viability
25Possible
Givairo Read
Feyenoord Rotterdam → Liverpool
officialTier 4
Also linked: Manchester United 22% · Newcastle United 21%
67viability
22Possible
Cristiano Ronaldo
Al Nassr → Arsenal
speculativeTier 4
72viability
22Possible
Jarell Quansah
Bayer 04 Leverkusen → Liverpool
speculativeTier 42 sources
67viability
22Possible
Givairo Read
Feyenoord Rotterdam → Manchester United
officialTier 4
Also linked: Liverpool 25% · Newcastle United 21%
57viability
22Possible
Mohamed Salah
Trabzonspor → Liverpool
speculativeTier 32 sources
Blocker: release clause in play
73viability
22Possible
Fabrício Bruno
Cruzeiro E.C. → Newcastle United
speculativeTier 3
61viability
22Possible
Tyler Morton
Olympique Lyonnais → Newcastle United
speculativeTier 4
49viability
22Possible
Tiago Gabriel
Lecce → Arsenal
speculativeTier 4
60viability
22Possible
Julián Araujo
Bournemouth → Liverpool
speculativeTier 32 sources
67viability
22Possible
Kevin
Fulham → Liverpool
speculativeTier 4
62viability
22Possible
Almamy Touré
Eintracht Frankfurt → Newcastle United
speculativeTier 4
58viability
22Possible
Noah James
Newcastle United → Arsenal
speculativeTier 4
Also linked: Liverpool 32%
60viability
22Possible
Declan Rice
Arsenal → Liverpool
speculativeTier 4
62viability
22Possible
Riley Owen
Brentford → Liverpool
speculativeTier 4
66viability
22Possible
Lanroy Machine
Angers SCO → Liverpool
speculativeTier 42 sources
69viability
22Possible
Karim Benzema
Al Ittihad → Newcastle United
speculativeTier 4
55viability
21Possible
Sandro Tonali
Tottenham Hotspur → Newcastle United
speculativeTier 32 sources
54viability
21Possible
Givairo Read
Feyenoord Rotterdam → Newcastle United
officialTier 4
Also linked: Liverpool 25% · Manchester United 22%
57viability
17Speculative
Matty Cash
Aston Villa → Barcelona
speculativeTier 3
Also linked: Newcastle United 49%
50viability
16Speculative
Nick Woltemade
Juventus → Newcastle United
speculativeTier 3
54viability
12Speculative
Rodrigo Mora
Roma → Arsenal
speculativeTier 4
58viability
7Speculative
Rico Lewis
Manchester City → Chelsea
speculativeTier 4
Also linked: Newcastle United 55% · Manchester United 28%
54viability
0Speculative
Morgan Rogers
Chelsea → Liverpool
speculativeTier 4
44viability
0Speculative
Anthony Gordon
Barcelona → Newcastle United
speculativeTier 4
41viability
Deals of the window
The blockbusters — biggest fees and biggest names of the current window.
- Morgan Rogers€137mAston Villa → Chelsea21 Jul 2026
- Yan Diomande€125mRB Leipzig → Real Madrid06 Aug 2026
- Bruno Guimarães€88mNewcastle United → Arsenal08 Aug 2026
- Anthony Gordon€80mNewcastle → Barcelona01 Jul 2026
- Jérémy Jacquet€63.6mStade Rennais → Liverpool01 Jul 2026
- Johan Manzambi€59mSC Freiburg → Aston Villa17 Jul 2026
Recently completed
Confirmed deals into tracked clubs — Transfermarkt ground truth, plus official announcements the pipeline catches as they break. Fees are reported/estimated figures.
- 23 Aug 2026RodriManchester City → Barcelona€76.5m
- 01 Jul 2026Piero HincapiéLeverkusen → Arsenal€52m
- 01 Jul 2026Geovany QuendaSporting → Chelsea€50.7m
- 13 Jul 2026Andrey SantosChelsea → Manchester United€48m
- 01 Jul 2026Sandro TonaliNewcastle United → Tottenham Hotspurfree
- 23 Jul 2026Alejandro GarnachoChelsea → Aston Villa€47m
- 20 Jul 2026Norberto Bercique Gomes BetuncalEverton → Aston Villa€44m
- 01 Jul 2026Rasmus HøjlundMan Utd → Napoli€44m
- 30 Aug 2026Ollie WatkinsAston Villa → Al Hilal€60m
- 23 Aug 2026Ezri KonsaAston Villa → Arsenal€60m
- 01 Jul 2026Loïs OpendaLeipzig → Juventus€42.8m
- 10 Aug 2026Ronald AraújoBarcelona → Liverpool€55m
- 06 Aug 2026James TraffordManchester City → Leeds United€53m
- 23 Aug 2026Ferran TorresBarcelona → Paris Saint-Germain€50m
- 15 Aug 2026Ferran TorresBarcelona → Paris St-Germain€50m
- 01 Aug 2026Carlos BalebaBrighton & Hove Albion → Manchester Unitedfree
- 28 Aug 2026Ayyoub BouaddiLille OSC → Manchester Cityfree
- 03 Aug 2026Lukas HornicekBraga → Newcastle United€30m
- 15 Aug 2026Cristian RomeroTottenham Hotspur → Atlético Madrid€40m
- 17 Jul 2026Tarik MuharemovićSassuolo Calcio → Leeds United€40m
- 26 Aug 2026Jan Paul van Hecke— → Tottenham Hotspurfree
- 06 Aug 2026Maghnes AklioucheMonaco → Paris Saint-Germainfree
- 30 Jun 2026Donyell MalenRoma → Aston Villafree
- 11 Aug 2026Shea CharlesSouthampton → Fulham€35m
- 30 Jun 2026EndrickLyon → Real Madridfree
- 30 Jun 2026Nicolas JacksonBayern Munich → Chelseafree
- 15 Jun 2026Marc CucurellaChelsea → Real Madridfree
- 01 Jun 2026Bernardo SilvaManchester City → Real Madridfree
- 23 Jul 2026Karim AdeyemiBorussia Dortmund → Barcelona€22m
- 03 Aug 2026Trevoh ChalobahChelsea → Como€30m
- 01 Aug 2026Tijjani ReijndersManchester City → Al Qadsiahfree
- 01 Jul 2026Mason GreenwoodOlympique de Marseille → Fenerbahçe Istanbulfree
- 01 Jul 2026Orkun KökçüBenfica → Beşiktaş J.K. (Football)€30m
- 28 Aug 2026SavinhoManchester City → Tottenham Hotspurfree
- 15 Aug 2026Mika GodtsAjax → Paris Saint-Germainfree
- 01 Aug 2026Curtis JonesLiverpool → Inter Milanfree
- 24 Jul 2026Maxence LacroixCrystal Palace → Chelseafree
- 14 Jul 2026Youri TielemansAston Villa → Manchester Unitedfree
- 30 Jun 2026Ethan NwaneriMarseille → Arsenalfree
- 30 Jun 2026Jakub KiwiorPorto → Arsenalfree
- 30 Aug 2026Gabriel MartinelliArsenal → Al Hilalfree
- 01 Aug 2026Franco MastantuonoClub Atlético River Plate → ACF Fiorentinafree
- 02 Jul 2026Mateus FernandesWest Ham United → Tottenham Hotspurfree
- 12 Aug 2026Pep ChavarríaRayo Vallecano → Chelsea€19m
- 15 Aug 2026Arne EngelsCeltic → West Ham United€26m
- 04 Aug 2026Carl RushworthBrighton & Hove Albion → Coventry City€26m
- 15 Aug 2026Djed SpenceTottenham Hotspur → Inter Milanfree
- 01 Jul 2026Mario GilaLazio → Milanfree
- 01 Jul 2026Donyell MalenAston Villa → Roma€25m
- 01 Jul 2026Merlin RöhlFreiburg → Everton€25m
- 01 Aug 2026Matteo RuggeriAtlético Madrid → Aston Villafree
- 28 Jul 2026Kiernan Dewsbury-HallEverton → Newcastle Unitedfree
- 01 Jul 2026Alisson SantosSporting → Napoli€16.5m
- 21 Jul 2026Abdul Fatawu— → Ipswich Town€23m
Graded predictions
Rumours we scored, then graded against the outcome — the data behind the source ledger.
✓ done
Pablo Durán
Celta de Vigo → Benfica
officialTier 2
59viability
✓ done
James Penrice
AEK Athens → Angers SCO
officialTier 2
58viability
✓ done
Arne Engels
Celtic → West Ham
officialTier 2
58viability
✓ done
Chancelle Effa Effa
Le Havre → Birmingham City
officialTier 2
58viability
✓ done
Lisandro Martínez
Manchester United → Chelsea
officialTier 2
70viability
✓ done
Valentín Barco
Strasbourg Alsace → Chelsea
officialTier 2
59viability
✓ done
Elijah Gift
SD Eibar → Swansea
officialTier 2
59viability
✓ done
Ben White
Arsenal → Wrexham
officialTier 2
63viability
✓ done
Fábio Vieira
Porto → Arsenal
officialTier 22 sources
65viability
✓ done
Barney Stewart
Athletic Club → Swansea City
officialTier 2
63viability
✓ done
Neil El Aynaoui
Roma → Angers SCO
officialTier 2
59viability
✓ done
Caleb Yirenkyi
Nordsjælland → Coventry City
officialTier 2
58viability
✓ done
Anthony Patterson
Sunderland → Wrexham
officialTier 2
59viability
✓ done
Jeremy Toljan
Levante → Manchester City
officialTier 23 sources
69viability
✓ done
Evann Guessand
Aston Villa → Crystal Palace
officialTier 2
57viability
✓ done
Daniela Arques
Sporting → London City Lionesses
officialTier 2
Blocker: subject to international clearance
58viability
✓ done
Ashleigh Neville
Leicester City → Charlton Athletic
officialTier 2
62viability
✓ done
Tolu Arokodare
Wolverhampton Wanderers → Ajax
officialTier 2
58viability
✓ done
Sebastian Berhalter
Vancouver Whitecaps → Middlesbrough
officialTier 2
62viability
✓ done
Kasper Hogh
Bodo/Glimt → Celtic
officialTier 2
62viability
✓ done
Alice Sombath
Olympique Lyonnais → Tottenham Hotspur
officialTier 2
61viability
✓ done
Giulia Dragoni
Barcelona → Chelsea
officialTier 2
61viability
✓ done
Issa Diop
Fulham → Ipswich Town
officialTier 2
62viability
✓ done
Ali Al-Hassan
Al Nassr → Celtic
officialTier 2
63viability
✓ done
Vanja Dragojevic
Partizan → Angers SCO
officialTier 2
58viability
✓ done
Beth Mead
Arsenal → Manchester City
officialTier 2
61viability
✓ done
Janina Leitzig
Leicester City → Manchester United
officialTier 2
57viability
✓ done
Georgia Stanway
Bayern Munich → Arsenal
officialTier 2
61viability
✓ done
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Everton → Newcastle United
officialTier 22 sources
54viability
✓ done
Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncal
Everton → Aston Villa
officialTier 2
59viability
✓ done
Holly McNamara
Melbourne City → Everton
officialTier 2
58viability
✓ done
Daizen Maeda
Celtic → Ipswich Town
officialTier 2
62viability
✓ done
Ollie Watkins
Al Hilal SFC → Al Hilal
officialTier 2
58viability
✓ done
Tarik Muharemović
Sassuolo Calcio → Leeds United
officialTier 2
55viability
✓ done
Abdul Fatawu
— → Ipswich Town
officialTier 2
58viability
✓ done
Mika Biereth
Monaco → Celtic
officialTier 2
60viability
✓ done
Ana Khalaili
Union Saint-Gilloise → Crystal Palace
officialTier 2
62viability
✓ done
Akane Okuma
— → Aston Villa
officialTier 2
55viability
✓ done
Gabriel Martinelli
Arsenal → Al Hilal
officialTier 2
62viability
✓ done
César Palacios
Fulham → Ipswich Town
officialTier 2
62viability
✓ done
Ferran Torres
Barcelona → Paris St-Germain
officialTier 2
63viability
✓ done
James Trafford
Manchester City → Leeds United
officialTier 22 sources
55viability
✓ done
Crysencio Summerville
West Ham → Al Hilal
officialTier 2
Also linked: Liverpool 54%
58viability
✓ done
Trevoh Chalobah
Chelsea → Como
officialTier 2
58viability
✓ done
Brennan Johnson
Crystal Palace → Everton
officialTier 2
59viability
✓ done
Lukas Hornicek
Braga → Newcastle United
officialTier 23 sources
61viability
✓ done
Christos Tzolis
Club Brugge K.V. → Arsenal
officialTier 23 sources
65viability
✗ dead
Ben White
Arsenal → Newcastle United
officialTier 4
64viability
✗ dead
Gabriel Martinelli
Arsenal → LA Galaxy
active talksTier 4
62viability
✗ dead
João Palhinha
S.L. Benfica → Aston Villa
active talksTier 4
59viability
✗ dead
Trevoh Chalobah
Chelsea → Aston Villa
speculativeTier 2
Blocker: club say not for sale
51viability
✗ dead
Gabriel Martinelli
Arsenal → Napoli
active talksTier 4
62viability
✗ dead
Reiss Nelson
Brentford → West Ham United
speculativeTier 4
62viability
✗ dead
Gabriel Martinelli
Arsenal → Turkey
contradictedTier 4
63viability
✗ dead
Curtis Jones
Inter Milan → Inter Miami
active talksTier 22 sources
66viability
✗ dead
Lisandro Martínez
Manchester United → Liverpool
speculativeTier 4
78viability
✗ dead
Ethan Nwaneri
Arsenal → Milan
early interestTier 32 sources
52viability
✗ dead
Johan Manzambi
Aston Villa → Newcastle United
speculativeTier 32 sources
59viability
✗ dead
Harvey Elliott
Liverpool → Leeds United
near completeTier 4
62viability
✗ dead
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Manchester City → Arsenal
near completeTier 23 sources
63viability
✗ dead
Gabriel Martinelli
Arsenal → Galatasaray
active talksTier 22 sources
60viability
✗ dead
Endrick
Real Madrid → Aston Villa
early interestTier 22 sources
Also linked: Arsenal 32%
67viability
✗ dead
Carlos Baleba
Manchester United → Arsenal
near completeTier 32 sources
Blocker: bid rejected
66viability
✗ dead
Curtis Jones
Inter Milan → Liverpool
speculativeTier 4
66viability
✗ dead
João Palhinha
S.L. Benfica → Newcastle United
officialTier 32 sources
Blocker: transfer of a former Bayern star
65viability
✗ dead
Christopher Nkunku
RB Leipzig → Roma
active talksTier 4
55viability
✗ dead
Jeremy Toljan
Levante → Arsenal
speculative
65viability
✗ dead
Gabriel Jesus
Barcelona → Al Hilal
near completeTier 2
Also linked: Arsenal 32%
62viability
✗ dead
Endrick
Real Madrid → Liverpool
early interestTier 4
Also linked: Arsenal 32%
74viability
✗ dead
Lorenzo Lucca
Udinese Calcio → Liverpool
officialTier 32 sources
64viability
✗ dead
Cristian Romero
Tottenham Hotspur → Arsenal
officialTier 23 sources
Blocker: Spurs unwillingness to sell
63viability
✗ dead
Savinho
Manchester City → Liverpool
near completeTier 32 sources
Blocker: bid rejected
65viability
✗ dead
Marcus Rashford
Manchester United → Liverpool
speculativeTier 4
74viability
✗ dead
James Trafford
Manchester City → Newcastle United
early interestTier 4
59viability
✗ dead
Rodri
Manchester City → Liverpool
near completeTier 4
66viability
✗ dead
Ezri Konsa
Aston Villa → Liverpool
early interestTier 4
70viability
✗ dead
Rodri
Manchester City → Real Madrid
advancedTier 2
66viability
✗ dead
Tijjani Reijnders
Manchester City → Nottingham Forest
early interestTier 4
55viability
✗ dead
Marcus Rashford
Manchester United → Arsenal
near completeTier 32 sources
77viability
✗ dead
Thomas Partey
Villarreal → Newcastle United
officialTier 22 sources
61viability
✗ dead
Vinícius Júnior
Real Madrid → Arsenal
near completeTier 23 sources
Blocker: Jose Mourinho
71viability
✗ dead
Bruno Guimarães
Newcastle United → Paris Saint-Germain
speculativeTier 4
62viability
✗ dead
Mohamed Salah
— → Beşiktaş J.K. (Football)
speculativeTier 2
Also linked: Liverpool 22%
62viability
✗ dead
Vinícius Júnior
Real Madrid → Tottenham Hotspur
speculativeTier 4
72viability
✗ dead
Yan Diomande
RB Leipzig → Paris Saint-Germain
advancedTier 32 sources
55viability
✗ dead
Bruno Guimarães
Newcastle United → Chelsea
advancedTier 32 sources
66viability
✗ dead
Vinícius Júnior
Real Madrid → Liverpool
active talksTier 4
74viability
✗ dead
Yan Diomande
RB Leipzig → Liverpool
advancedTier 32 sources
Blocker: PSG deal facing collapse
72viability
✗ dead
Yan Diomande
RB Leipzig → Arsenal
near completeTier 32 sources
70viability
✗ dead
Michael Olise
Bayern Munich → Real Madrid
early interestTier 2
55viability
✗ dead
Morgan Rogers
Aston Villa → Arsenal
officialTier 23 sources
Also linked: Liverpool 0%
66viability
✗ dead
Crysencio Summerville
West Ham → Tottenham Hotspur
early interestTier 2
Also linked: Liverpool 54%
61viability
✗ dead
Mateus Fernandes
Tottenham Hotspur → Manchester United
contradictedTier 2
55viability