Miguel Rodríguez Vidal
Celta de Vigo → Arsenal
officialTier 22 sources
The board
Every probability is a deterministic weighted blend — reproducible, and explained on each rumour’s page. It is an opinion-with-a-formula, not a measured frequency. The model only structures prose into claims; it never picks a number.
Celta de Vigo → Arsenal
officialTier 22 sources
SC Freiburg → Aston Villa
officialTier 22 sources
Also linked: Newcastle United 10%
Blocker: Newcastle United
Everton → Aston Villa
officialTier 2
Celtic → Ipswich Town
officialTier 2
Roma → Angers SCO
officialTier 2
Olympique Lyonnais → Tottenham Hotspur
officialTier 2
West Ham → Al Hilal
officialTier 2
Leicester City → Manchester United
officialTier 2
Arsenal → Manchester City
officialTier 2
Partizan → Angers SCO
officialTier 2
Hull City → Angers SCO
officialTier 2
Athletic Club → Swansea
officialTier 2
Fulham → Ipswich Town
officialTier 2
— → Ipswich Town
officialTier 2
Melbourne City → Everton
officialTier 2
Celta de Vigo → Benfica
officialTier 2
Sassuolo Calcio → Leeds United
officialTier 2
Paris Saint-Germain → Liverpool
advancedTier 22 sources
Also linked: Arsenal 25%
Blocker: Diomande transfer plan
— → Aston Villa
officialTier 2
Leicester City → Everton
near completeTier 2
Monaco → Liverpool
officialTier 4
Atlético Madrid → Arsenal
officialTier 4
— → Arsenal
near completeTier 22 sources
Also linked: Chelsea 25%
Everton → Newcastle United
advancedTier 2
Arsenal → Newcastle United
officialTier 4
Real Madrid → Manchester United
early interestTier 22 sources
Also linked: Man Utd 29%
Club Brugge K.V. → Arsenal
officialTier 4
Aston Villa → Manchester United
speculativeTier 2
Bournemouth → Chelsea
advancedTier 22 sources
Also linked: Arsenal 17% · Liverpool 16%
Aston Villa → Newcastle United
near completeTier 4
Tottenham Hotspur → Arsenal
near completeTier 4
Olympique Lyonnais → Liverpool
near completeTier 4
Manchester City → Real Madrid
advancedTier 2
Also linked: Liverpool 18%
Stade Brestois 29 → Crystal Palace
early interestTier 2
Arsenal → Porto
officialTier 4
Aston Villa → Arsenal
officialTier 4
Also linked: Manchester United 15%
Newcastle United → Hull City
near completeTier 4
Bologna F.C. → Angers SCO
speculativeTier 2
Real Madrid → Manchester United
early interestTier 22 sources
Also linked: Arsenal 28%
SC Freiburg → Newcastle United
near completeTier 4
Porto → Arsenal
early interestTier 4
Paris FC → Arsenal
advancedTier 4
Tottenham Hotspur → Liverpool
early interestTier 4
LAFC → Liverpool
speculativeTier 4
Bournemouth → Liverpool
early interestTier 4
Milan → Liverpool
early interestTier 4
Málaga → Aston Villa
officialTier 4
Also linked: Everton 8%
Manchester United → Liverpool
speculativeTier 4
Leeds United → Newcastle United
early interestTier 4
1899 Hoffenheim → Newcastle United
advancedTier 4
Milan → Newcastle United
early interestTier 4
ACF Fiorentina → Newcastle United
early interestTier 4
Aston Villa → Liverpool
speculativeTier 4
Brighton & Hove Albion → Liverpool
speculativeTier 4
Juventus → Liverpool
speculativeTier 4
Newcastle United → Manchester United
early interestTier 4
Barcelona → Arsenal
speculativeTier 4
Athletic Club → Arsenal
speculativeTier 4
Bournemouth → Arsenal
speculativeTier 4
Juventus → Arsenal
speculativeTier 4
Barcelona → Arsenal
early interestTier 4
Also linked: Liverpool 33%
Fulham → Newcastle United
speculativeTier 4
Liverpool → Real Madrid
active talksTier 4
Manchester United → Newcastle United
speculativeTier 4
Chelsea → Manchester City
early interestTier 4
Deportivo de A Coruña → Arsenal
early interestTier 4
Manchester City → Leeds United
advancedTier 22 sources
Also linked: Newcastle United 18%
Liverpool → Arsenal
early interestTier 4
Nottingham Forest → Arsenal
early interestTier 4
Leeds United → Arsenal
early interestTier 4
Real Madrid → Arsenal
advancedTier 22 sources
Also linked: Tottenham Hotspur 20% · Liverpool 15%
Blocker: Jose Mourinho
Ajax → Newcastle United
officialTier 4
Stuttgart → Newcastle United
early interestTier 4
Roma → Liverpool
speculativeTier 4
Paris Saint-Germain → Manchester United
early interestTier 4
Manchester City → Newcastle United
early interestTier 4
Manchester City → Milan
early interestTier 4
Bayern Munich → Real Madrid
early interestTier 4
Liverpool → Inter Milan
early interestTier 4
Levante → Arsenal
speculativeTier 4
Olympique de Marseille → LFC
speculativeTier 4
Tottenham Hotspur → Newcastle United
speculativeTier 4
Arsenal → Atlético Madrid
speculativeTier 4
Genoa CFC → Roma
speculativeTier 4
Monaco → Sunderland
speculativeTier 4
Liverpool → Real Madrid
speculativeTier 4
Parma Calcio → Newcastle United
speculativeTier 4
Lens → Newcastle United
speculativeTier 4
Borussia Dortmund → Newcastle United
speculativeTier 4
Barcelona → Liverpool
speculativeTier 4
Also linked: Arsenal 40%
Roma → Manchester United
active talksTier 4
Also linked: Liverpool 25%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen → Liverpool
speculativeTier 4
Liverpool → Inter Milan
early interestTier 4
Also linked: Nottingham Forest 26%
Manchester United → Liverpool
active talksTier 4
Also linked: Juventus 26%
Olympique Lyonnais → Arsenal
early interestTier 4
Also linked: Real Madrid 28%
RB Leipzig → Tottenham Hotspur
early interestTier 4
Also linked: Newcastle United 28%
Lille OSC → Arsenal
near completeTier 4
Also linked: Liverpool 21%
Inter Milan → Aston Villa
speculativeTier 2
Blocker: club say not for sale
Angers SCO → Liverpool
officialTier 4
Also linked: Newcastle United 27%
Real Madrid → Man Utd
early interestTier 4
Also linked: Manchester United 51%
Olympique Lyonnais → Real Madrid
early interestTier 4
Also linked: Arsenal 30%
RB Leipzig → Newcastle United
early interestTier 4
Also linked: Tottenham Hotspur 30%
Real Madrid → Arsenal
speculativeTier 4
Also linked: Manchester United 45%
Tottenham Hotspur → Newcastle United
contradictedTier 4
RB Leipzig → Arsenal
near completeTier 4
Also linked: Real Madrid 25%
Angers SCO → Newcastle United
officialTier 4
Also linked: Liverpool 29%
Manchester United → Juventus
active talksTier 4
Also linked: Liverpool 30%
Liverpool → Nottingham Forest
speculativeTier 4
Also linked: Inter Milan 32%
RB Leipzig → Real Madrid
officialTier 4
Also linked: Arsenal 27%
Paris Saint-Germain → Arsenal
early interestTier 4
Also linked: Liverpool 58%
Atlético Madrid → Liverpool
near completeTier 4
Manchester City → Chelsea
early interestTier 2
Also linked: Arsenal 54%
Roma → Liverpool
early interestTier 4
Also linked: Manchester United 33%
— → Chelsea
contradictedTier 4
Sunderland → Chelsea
contradictedTier 2
Newcastle United → Chelsea
advancedTier 4
Also linked: Arsenal 3%
Lille OSC → Liverpool
advancedTier 4
Also linked: Arsenal 30%
Real Madrid → Tottenham Hotspur
speculativeTier 4
Also linked: Arsenal 38% · Liverpool 15%
Tottenham Hotspur → Newcastle United
active talksTier 4
Blocker: rejected offer
Manchester City → Liverpool
speculativeTier 4
Also linked: Real Madrid 48%
Manchester City → Newcastle United
early interestTier 4
Also linked: Leeds United 39%
Bournemouth → Arsenal
early interestTier 4
Also linked: Chelsea 50% · Liverpool 16%
Bournemouth → Liverpool
early interestTier 4
Also linked: Chelsea 50% · Arsenal 17%
Blocker: bid rejected
Real Madrid → Liverpool
active talksTier 4
Also linked: Arsenal 38% · Tottenham Hotspur 20%
Aston Villa → Manchester United
early interestTier 4
Also linked: Arsenal 47%
SC Freiburg → Newcastle United
speculativeTier 4
Also linked: Aston Villa 64%
Málaga → Everton
speculativeTier 4
Also linked: Aston Villa 43%
Newcastle United → Arsenal
near completeTier 22 sources
Also linked: Chelsea 21%
Blocker: price
The blockbusters — biggest fees and biggest names of the current window.
Confirmed deals into tracked clubs — Transfermarkt ground truth, plus official announcements the pipeline catches as they break. Fees are reported/estimated figures.
Rumours we scored, then graded against the outcome — the data behind the source ledger.
Manchester United → Inter Miami
officialTier 2
Monaco → Newcastle United
officialTier 22 sources
Borussia Dortmund → Barcelona
officialTier 2
Chelsea → Aston Villa
officialTier 2
Chelsea → Manchester United
officialTier 2
Crystal Palace → Chelsea
near completeTier 22 sources
Aston Villa → Chelsea
officialTier 22 sources
Aston Villa → Arsenal
officialTier 22 sources
RB Leipzig → Paris Saint-Germain
advancedTier 4
Also linked: Arsenal 27% · Real Madrid 25%
RB Leipzig → Liverpool
advancedTier 4
Also linked: Arsenal 27% · Real Madrid 25%
Blocker: PSG deal facing collapse
West Ham → Tottenham Hotspur
early interestTier 2
Also linked: Al Hilal 59%
Tottenham Hotspur → Manchester United
contradictedTier 2