← Board/player transfer · updated 11 Aug 2026· graded collapsed
Bruno Guimarães
Newcastle United → Chelsea
0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
66%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
88
expert opinion · best role CM
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability29 → 0|Viability66 → 6611 Aug 2026
Outcome graded: collapsed. 2 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
Score movement
- 11 Aug 202629 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 2 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
- 06 Aug 202625 → 29Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 01 Aug 202628 → 25Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 01 Aug 202632 → 28Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 31 Jul 202621 → 32Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 25 Jul 202616 → 21The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 25 Jul 2026— → 16The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+17 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+9 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+7 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+4 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability55%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CM, CDM
- Age
- 28
- Nationality
- Spain
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2028
- Market value
- €75m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Chelsea
- Stated needs
- ST, GK
- Budget (est.)
- €100m
- Wage headroom
- 55/100
- PSR pressure
- 70/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Chelsea’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 24 Jul 2026Tier 4Read Newcastlepolled
Bruno Guimaraes to Chelsea transfer decision confirmed as Newcastle United exit talks grow
- 25 Jul 2026Tier 3Chronicle Livepolled
Bruno Guimaraes to Chelsea transfer truth as Newcastle decision made before £34m move