TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 13 Oct 2026

Erling Haaland

Manchester City → Arsenal

65%Advanced
Probability
65%
Viability
65%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability63 → 65|Viability65 → 6513 Oct 2026

  • ▪An agreement is reported to be close
  • ▪Multiple independent sources agree
  • ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  • ▪The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  • ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club

Score movement

  1. 13 Oct 202663 → 65An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  2. 05 Oct 202666 → 63An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 01 Oct 202672 → 66An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  4. 30 Sept 202669 → 72An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  5. 29 Sept 202660 → 69An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  6. 29 Sept 202622 → 60An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  7. 27 Sept 2026— → 22This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+17 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+16 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+6 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Competing destinations−9 pts
Probability65%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
ST
Age
26
Nationality
Norway
Contract until
30 Jun 2034
Market value
€200m
Preferred foot
left

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs
ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.)
€120m
Wage headroom
65/100
PSR pressure
35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Competing for Erling Haaland

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Evidence timeline

  1. 27 Sept 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Arsenal rumours today: Alexander-Arnold and Haaland 'release clause explained'

    monitoring · speculativetone: speculativevia rule-based:v1source
    • — release clause in play
  2. 28 Sept 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Could Arsenal sign Haaland? How Man City charges may impact players

    monitoring · speculativetone: speculativevia rule-based:v1source
  3. 29 Sept 2026Tier 4Daily Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal news: Erling Haaland transfer stance as secret clause confirmed in hero's contract

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  4. 29 Sept 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal news: Erling Haaland transfer stance as secret clause confirmed in hero's contract

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  5. 29 Sept 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal news: Erling Haaland transfer stance as secret clause confirmed in hero's contract

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  6. 29 Sept 2026Tier 3Football Londonpolled

    Arsenal told to sign 'perfect' Man City star - and it's not Erling Haaland

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  7. 12 Oct 2026Tier 4Pain In The Arsenalpolled

    Arsenal could finally replace Leandro Trossard by signing Erling Haaland’s teammate

    monitoring · speculativetone: speculativevia rule-based:v1source