TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 13 Oct 2026

Erling Haaland

Manchester City → Liverpool

26%Possible
Probability
26%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low

Why this score?

Probability24 → 26|Viability62 → 6206 Oct 2026

  • ▪Multiple independent sources agree
  • ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  • ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club

Score movement

  1. 06 Oct 202624 → 26Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  2. 05 Oct 202619 → 24Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 02 Oct 202614 → 19Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  4. 01 Oct 2026— → 14This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+14 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+7 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Competing destinations−27 pts
Probability26%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
ST
Age
26
Nationality
Norway
Contract until
30 Jun 2034
Market value
€200m
Preferred foot
left

Buying club · Liverpool

Stated needs
CB, ST
Budget (est.)
€130m
Wage headroom
70/100
PSR pressure
25/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Liverpool’s Possible XI →

Competing for Erling Haaland

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Evidence timeline

  1. 01 Oct 2026Tier 4Liverpool.compolled

    Jamie Carragher asks if Liverpool can sign Erling Haaland after Man City hit with guilty charge

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  2. 02 Oct 2026Tier 4TEAMtalkpolled

    Man City FFP: Carragher asks top lawyer if Liverpool can sign Erling Haaland on a free - the result will shock you

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  3. 05 Oct 2026Tier 4This Is Anfieldpolled

    Endrick interest, Mac Allister’s big win & Haaland ‘injury’ – Latest Liverpool FC News

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  4. 05 Oct 2026Tier 4Thisisanfield.compolled

    Endrick interest, Mac Allister’s big win & Haaland ‘injury’ – Latest Liverpool FC News

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source