← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded collapsed

Endrick

Real Madrid → Aston Villa

0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
67%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability53 → 0|Viability67 → 6704 Sept 2026

Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.

Score movement

  1. 04 Sept 202653 → 0Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
  2. 10 Aug 202638 → 53Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 09 Aug 2026— → 38This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+4 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Competing destinations−9 pts
Probability32%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
ST, CAM, RW, CM
Age
20
Nationality
Brazil
Contract until
30 Jun 2030
Market value
€40m
Preferred foot
left

Buying club · Aston Villa

Stated needs
CM, LW
Budget (est.)
€60m
Wage headroom
40/100
PSR pressure
80/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Aston Villa’s Possible XI →

Competing for Endrick

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Evidence timeline

  1. 09 Aug 2026Tier 4Monday's Gossippolled

    Villa interested in Endrick loan

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 10 Aug 2026Tier 2Transfermarktpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Aston Villa eye Endrick loan as Galatasaray shelve Rafael Leão plans

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
Endrick to Aston Villa — 0% likely · TransferSignal