← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded collapsed
Endrick
Real Madrid → Aston Villa
0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
67%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability53 → 0|Viability67 → 6704 Sept 2026
Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
Score movement
- 04 Sept 202653 → 0Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
- 10 Aug 202638 → 53Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 09 Aug 2026— → 38This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+4 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability32%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CAM, ST, RW, CM
- Age
- 20
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2030
- Market value
- €40m
- Preferred foot
- left
Buying club · Aston Villa
- Stated needs
- CM, LW
- Budget (est.)
- €60m
- Wage headroom
- 40/100
- PSR pressure
- 80/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Aston Villa’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 09 Aug 2026Tier 4Monday's Gossippolled
Villa interested in Endrick loan
- 10 Aug 2026Tier 2Transfermarktpolled
Transfer news LIVE: Aston Villa eye Endrick loan as Galatasaray shelve Rafael Leão plans