TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 11 Aug 2026· graded collapsed

Yan Diomande

RB Leipzig → Liverpool

0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
72%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low

Why this score?

Probability35 → 0|Viability72 → 7211 Aug 2026

Outcome graded: collapsed. 10 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.

Score movement

  1. 11 Aug 202635 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 10 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
  2. 07 Aug 202638 → 35A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 06 Aug 202635 → 38A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  4. 05 Aug 202638 → 35A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  5. 02 Aug 20260 → 38Grade reverted (was collapsed); rumour reopened, re-scored, and each source's prediction backed out of the ledger.
  6. 02 Aug 20260 → 38A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  7. 25 Jul 202615 → 11A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  8. 25 Jul 202618 → 15A source has denied / contradicted this · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  9. 24 Jul 202627 → 18A source has denied / contradicted this · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  10. 21 Jul 20260 → 27A source has denied / contradicted this · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  11. 17 Jul 202620 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
  12. 14 Jul 202630 → 20A source has denied / contradicted this · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  13. 14 Jul 202648 → 30This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  14. 14 Jul 2026— → 48This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+17 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+16 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+9 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+8 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Contradiction penalty−11 pts
Probability58%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
RW, LW, ST
Age
19
Nationality
Ivory Coast
Contract until
30 Jun 2030
Market value
€45m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Liverpool

Stated needs
CB, ST
Budget (est.)
€130m
Wage headroom
70/100
PSR pressure
25/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Liverpool’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 26 Jun 2026Tier 4Liverpool FCpolled

    Yan Diomande makes stance clear as £100m Liverpool transfer talks continue

    talks · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 26 Jun 2026Tier 4Liverpool FCpolled

    Yan Diomande addresses transfer rumours amid reports of new Liverpool bid

    interest · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 26 Jun 2026Tier 4The Liverpool Offsidepolled

    Yan Diomande Shrugs Off Liverpool Transfer Speculation

    denial · contradictedtone: cautiousvia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — Yan Diomande Shrugs Off Liverpool Transfer Speculation
  4. 21 Jul 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Liverpool news: Yan Diomande transfer U-turn and club issue statement over arrival

    unknown · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  5. 21 Jul 2026Tier 3Liverpool Echopolled

    Liverpool latest: Club release new arrival statement and Yan Diomande transfer 'update' emerges

    unknown · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  6. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4Football365polled

    Liverpool submit 'approach' to hijack PSG for 'prime target' amid Diomande decision

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  7. 24 Jul 2026Tier 4BBCpolled

    Liverpool transfer rumours: Yan Diomande, Amara Nallo

    monitoring · speculativetone: speculativevia rule-based:v1source
  8. 24 Jul 2026Tier 4TEAMtalkpolled

    Stunning Liverpool transfer resurrection for Yan Diomande possible with PSG deal facing collapse - Report

    interest · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — PSG deal facing collapse
  9. 24 Jul 2026Tier 4Football365polled

    Liverpool given hope of Yan Diomande transfer for three reasons as PSG face fiasco

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  10. 24 Jul 2026Tier 3Liverpool Echopolled

    Yan Diomande causes a stir with social media activity amid Liverpool transfer interest

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  11. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Liverpool receive huge Yan Diomande transfer update as £85m bid rejected

    bid submitted · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  12. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Mirrorpolled

    Liverpool receive huge Yan Diomande transfer update as £85m bid rejected

    bid submitted · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  13. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Daily Starpolled

    Liverpool dealt another transfer blow as latest team enter Yan Diomande race

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  14. 26 Jul 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Liverpool news: Yan Diomande informs Andoni Iraola of decision as Reds boss given £51million answer

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  15. 26 Jul 2026Tier 4Mirrorpolled

    Liverpool news: Yan Diomande informs Andoni Iraola of decision as Reds boss given £51million answer

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  16. 26 Jul 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Liverpool news: Yan Diomande informs Andoni Iraola of decision as Reds boss given £51million answer

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  17. 06 Aug 2026Tier 4Daily Mirrorpolled

    Why Yan Diomande decided against Liverpool transfer after meeting Andoni Iraola

    denial · contradictedtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — decided against Liverpool transfer
  18. 14 Aug 2026Tier 3Liverpool Echopolled

    Yan Diomande makes transfer confession after Liverpool move failed

    denial · contradictedtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — Liverpool move failed