TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 23 Aug 2026· graded confirmed

Crysencio Summerville

West Ham → Al Hilal

100%Done / awaiting official
Probability
100%
Viability
58%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability61 → 100|Viability58 → 5823 Aug 2026

Outcome graded: confirmed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.

Score movement

  1. 23 Aug 202661 → 100Outcome graded: confirmed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
  2. 06 Aug 202658 → 61An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported
  3. 31 Jul 202659 → 58An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported
  4. 25 Jul 202648 → 59An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported
  5. 21 Jul 2026— → 48An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · The player is being pursued by more than one club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+24 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+6 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+3 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Competing destinations−27 pts
Probability34%

Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Player not resolved to a known squad — scored on reporting signals only.

Buying club · Al Hilal

Stated needs
—
Budget (est.)
—
Wage headroom
—
PSR pressure
—

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Al Hilal’s Possible XI →

Competing for Crysencio Summerville

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Evidence timeline

  1. 21 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Al-Hilal agree £68m deal for West Ham's Summerville

    agreement close · near completetone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 21 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Al-Hilal agree £60m deal for West Ham's Summerville

    agreement close · near completetone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 24 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    West Ham winger Summerville joins Al-Hilal

    official · officialtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource