← Board/player transfer · updated 31 Jul 2026
Arne Engels
Celtic → West Ham
22%Possible
Probability
22%
Viability
58%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability— → 22|Viability— → 5831 Jul 2026
- ▪A source has denied / contradicted this
- ▪A formal bid has been reported
Score movement
Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.
- 31 Jul 2026— → 22A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+21 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+0 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+6 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Contradiction penalty−22 pts
Probability22%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
Player not resolved to a known squad — scored on reporting signals only.
Buying club
Buying club not resolved.
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
Evidence timeline
- 31 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled
Celtic reject West Ham Engels bid and confirm Johnston interest