← Board/player transfer · updated 19 Oct 2026
Harry Wilson
Fulham → Newcastle United
67%Advanced
Probability
67%
Viability
57%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability57 → 67|Viability62 → 5719 Oct 2026
- ▪An agreement is reported to be close
- ▪Multiple independent sources agree
- ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
Score movement
- 19 Oct 202657 → 67An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
- 04 Sept 202657 → 57Window closed with no completed deal on record for this player. Expired, not graded — no completed transfer exists either way, and our data has coverage gaps, so no source's accuracy is moved on an ambiguity.
- 07 Aug 202663 → 57An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 06 Aug 202660 → 63An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
- 03 Aug 202657 → 60An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
- 03 Aug 202640 → 57An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
- 25 Jul 2026— → 40This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+17 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+14 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability67%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- RW, ST
- Age
- 29
- Nationality
- Wales
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2030
- Market value
- €25m
- Preferred foot
- left
Buying club · Newcastle United
- Stated needs
- RW, CB
- Budget (est.)
- €80m
- Wage headroom
- 50/100
- PSR pressure
- 75/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Newcastle United’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Shields Gazettepolled
Ross Wilson new signing boost & Newcastle United warning signs after 1-1 draw at Gateshead
- 03 Aug 2026Tier 4Thenorthernecho.co.ukpolled
Newcastle United deal confirmed after 'emotional rollercoaster' as Ross Wilson reacts
- 03 Aug 2026Tier 4The Northern Echopolled
Newcastle United deal confirmed after 'emotional rollercoaster' as Ross Wilson reacts
- 19 Oct 2026Tier 3Chronicle Livepolled
Ross Wilson has already given Matthias Jaissle verdict amid Newcastle United warning signs