TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 23 Aug 2026· graded confirmed

Lukas Hornicek

Braga → Newcastle United

100%Done / awaiting official
Probability
100%
Viability
61%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability76 → 100|Viability61 → 6123 Aug 2026

Outcome graded: confirmed. 6 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.

Score movement

  1. 23 Aug 202676 → 100Outcome graded: confirmed. 6 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
  2. 06 Aug 202673 → 76An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree
  3. 03 Aug 202671 → 73An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree
  4. 03 Aug 202660 → 71An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree
  5. 01 Aug 202656 → 60An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree
  6. 31 Jul 202646 → 56An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree
  7. 31 Jul 202640 → 46An agreement is reported to be close
  8. 29 Jul 2026— → 40Rumour created from first claim

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+24 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+16 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+6 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+3 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability75%

Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Player not resolved to a known squad — scored on reporting signals only.

Buying club · Newcastle United

Stated needs
RW, CB
Budget (est.)
€80m
Wage headroom
50/100
PSR pressure
75/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Newcastle United’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 29 Jul 2026Tier 3Chronicle Livepolled

    Newcastle United in talks to activate Lukas Hornicek release clause as star withdrawn from action

    talks · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 31 Jul 2026Tier 4The Magpolled

    Lukas Hornicek set to fly to Tyneside to finalise Newcastle United transfer

    agreement close · near completetone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 31 Jul 2026Tier 4Themag.co.ukpolled

    Lukas Hornicek set to fly to Tyneside to finalise Newcastle United transfer

    agreement close · near completetone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  4. 03 Aug 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Newcastle United sign goalkeeper Lukas Hornicek from Braga for £25.7m

    official · officialtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  5. 03 Aug 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Newcastle sign Braga keeper Hornicek for £25.7m

    official · officialtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  6. 03 Aug 2026Tier 2Sky Sportspolled

    Newcastle United have signed goalkeeper Lukas Hornicek from Braga in a deal worth £25.7m.

    official · officialtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  7. 03 Aug 2026Tier 3Chronicle Livepolled

    Lukas Hornicek's 'emotional' Newcastle United transfer in first words after £25.7m move

    official · officialtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  8. 03 Aug 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Newcastle news: Goalkeeper Hornicek completes transfer

    official · officialtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  9. 03 Aug 2026Tier 4The Magpolled

    Sporting Braga have now made public the exact transfer fee Newcastle United are paying for Lukas Hornicek

    official · officialtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  10. 03 Aug 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled

    Newcastle’s new No1 Lukas Hornicek forced to ditch risque nickname after £25.7m transfer

    official · officialtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource