TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded collapsed

Lorenzo Lucca

Udinese Calcio → Liverpool

0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
64%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low

Why this score?

Probability59 → 0|Viability64 → 6404 Sept 2026

Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.

Score movement

  1. 04 Sept 202659 → 0Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
  2. 02 Sept 202654 → 59An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  3. 01 Sept 202650 → 54An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  4. 30 Aug 2026— → 50This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+17 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+11 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+8 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+3 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability69%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
ST
Age
26
Nationality
Italy
Contract until
—
Market value
—
Preferred foot
—

Buying club · Liverpool

Stated needs
CB, ST
Budget (est.)
€130m
Wage headroom
70/100
PSR pressure
25/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Liverpool’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 30 Aug 2026Tier 4This Is Anfieldpolled

    Liverpool ‘open talks’ to sign 6’7” goalkeeper Lucca Brughmans

    talks · active talkstone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  2. 01 Sept 2026Tier 4This Is Anfieldpolled

    Lucca Brughmans transfer confirmed: Liverpool agree 2027 deal and loan

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  3. 01 Sept 2026Tier 4Thisisanfield.compolled

    Lucca Brughmans transfer confirmed: Liverpool agree 2027 deal and loan

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  4. 07 Sept 2026Tier 3Liverpool Echopolled

    Manager makes vow over £30m Liverpool goalkeeper Lucca Brughmans - 'The spotlight is on'

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
Lorenzo Lucca to Liverpool — 0% likely · TransferSignal