← Board/player transfer · updated 20 Jul 2026

Pablo Durán

Celta de Vigo Benfica

59%Active interest
Probability
59%
Viability
59%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability59|Viability5920 Jul 2026

  • An agreement is reported to be close

Score movement

Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.

  1. 20 Jul 202659An agreement is reported to be close

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+6 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability59%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
ST
Age
25
Nationality
Spain
Contract until
30 Jun 2028
Market value
€0m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club

Buying club not resolved.

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

Evidence timeline

  1. 20 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Ex-Villa striker Duran joins seventh club aged 22

    official · officialtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource