← Board/player transfer · updated 20 Jul 2026
Pablo Durán
Celta de Vigo → Benfica
59%Active interest
Probability
59%
Viability
59%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability— → 59|Viability— → 5920 Jul 2026
- ▪An agreement is reported to be close
Score movement
Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.
- 20 Jul 2026— → 59An agreement is reported to be close
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+6 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability59%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- ST
- Age
- 25
- Nationality
- Spain
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2028
- Market value
- €0m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club
Buying club not resolved.
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
Evidence timeline
- 20 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled
Ex-Villa striker Duran joins seventh club aged 22