← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded collapsed
João Palhinha
S.L. Benfica → Aston Villa
0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
59%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability17 → 0|Viability59 → 5904 Sept 2026
Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
Score movement
- 04 Sept 202617 → 0Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
- 14 Aug 202636 → 17A formal bid has been reported · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 09 Aug 2026— → 36A formal bid has been reported · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+6 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+4 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability32%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CDM
- Age
- 31
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2026
- Market value
- €30m
- Preferred foot
- —
Buying club · Aston Villa
- Stated needs
- CM, LW
- Budget (est.)
- €60m
- Wage headroom
- 40/100
- PSR pressure
- 80/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Aston Villa’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 09 Aug 2026Tier 4Yahoo Sports UKpolled
Aston Villa bid to avoid Newcastle transfer revenge by sealing Joao Palhinha deal