TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 02 Aug 2026· graded collapsed

Morgan Rogers

Aston Villa → Arsenal

0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
66%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low

Why this score?

Probability0 → 32|Viability66 → 6624 Jul 2026

  • ▪A source has denied / contradicted this
  • ▪An agreement is reported to be close
  • ▪A formal bid has been reported
  • ▪Multiple independent sources agree
  • ▪The player's preference is reported to favour the move

Score movement

  1. 24 Jul 20260 → 32A source has denied / contradicted this · An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  2. 24 Jul 202632 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 3 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
  3. 21 Jul 202615 → 32A source has denied / contradicted this · An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  4. 20 Jul 202625 → 15A source has denied / contradicted this · An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  5. 20 Jul 202635 → 25A source has denied / contradicted this · An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  6. 19 Jul 202630 → 35A source has denied / contradicted this · An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  7. 19 Jul 202640 → 30A source has denied / contradicted this · An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  8. 19 Jul 202662 → 40An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  9. 19 Jul 202667 → 62An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  10. 18 Jul 202665 → 67An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  11. 18 Jul 202662 → 65An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  12. 17 Jul 202648 → 62A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  13. 04 Jul 202640 → 48A formal bid has been reported · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  14. 04 Jul 2026— → 40Rumour created from first claim

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+24 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+16 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+8 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+6 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Contradiction penalty−8 pts
Competing destinations−5 pts
Probability65%

Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CAM, CM
Age
24
Nationality
United Kingdom
Contract until
30 Jun 2031
Market value
€70m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs
ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.)
€120m
Wage headroom
65/100
PSR pressure
35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Competing for Morgan Rogers

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Evidence timeline

  1. 22 Jun 2026Tier 2The Guardianpolled

    Arsenal make Villa’s Morgan Rogers their No 1 target in transfer window

    talks · active talkstone: speculativevia rule-based:v1source
  2. 30 Jun 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal news: Morgan Rogers bid expected as £86million dream transfer gets green light

    bid submitted · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 30 Jun 2026Tier 2Sky Sportspolled

    Morgan Rogers: Arsenal target valued at British-record £130m by Aston Villa - Paper Talk | Football News

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  4. 04 Jul 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled

    Arsenal transfer news LIVE: Konsa interest, Monga to City, Guimaraes latest

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia rule-based:v1source
  5. 13 Jul 2026Tier 4Football365polled

    Romano reveals how much Aston Villa want Arsenal to pay for Rogers after selling Youri Tielemans to Man Utd

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  6. 17 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Arsenal want Villa's Rogers - Saturday's gossip

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  7. 17 Jul 2026Tier 3TNT Sportspolled

    Arsenal plot £130m Rogers swoop, Man Utd clear path for new forward - Paper Round

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  8. 18 Jul 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled

    Arsenal transfer news LIVE: Gunners 'AGREE deal' for Spurs talent, Morgan Rogers 'talks', Tzolis set for medical

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  9. 18 Jul 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal 'in talks' for Rogers, Man Utd bid expected, Julian Alvarez offer

    talks · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  10. 18 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Rogers to Arsenal, deal confirmed; Man Utd to make Kone bid

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  11. 18 Jul 2026Tier 4Mirrorpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: First Arsenal bid for Rogers ready, medical booked, Man Utd exit looms

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  12. 18 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Rogers to Arsenal, deal confirmed; Man Utd to make Kone bid

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  13. 18 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Rogers to Arsenal, deal confirmed; Man Utd to make Kone bid

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  14. 18 Jul 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: First Arsenal bid for Rogers ready, medical booked, Man Utd exit looms

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  15. 18 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal medical; Rogers bid; Man Utd plot offer

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  16. 19 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal done deal; Rogers medical; Man Utd bid

    official · officialtone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  17. 19 Jul 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal news: Shock Morgan Rogers blow as £34million transfer deadline passes

    bid submitted · contradictedtone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — Shock Morgan Rogers blow
  18. 19 Jul 2026Tier 4Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal news: Shock Morgan Rogers blow as £34million transfer deadline passes

    bid submitted · contradictedtone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — Shock Morgan Rogers blow
  19. 19 Jul 2026Tier 3Football Londonpolled

    Arsenal latest: Transfer deadline passes as Morgan Rogers makes up his mind on £117m move

    unknown · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  20. 19 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal eye Diomande; Rogers medical; Man Utd deal

    medical · near completetone: speculativevia rule-based:v1source
  21. 19 Jul 2026Tier 4GiveMeSportpolled

    Arsenal Eyeing Wide Man Who is 'Levels Above Most' Amid Morgan Rogers Blow

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia rule-based:v1source
  22. 19 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal eye Diomande; Rogers medical; Man Utd deal

    medical · near completetone: speculativevia rule-based:v1source
  23. 19 Jul 2026Tier 2Sky Sportspolled

    Morgan Rogers transfer news: Arsenal expected to make approach for top target but Aston Villa man could cost more than £100m

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  24. 19 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal eye Diomande; Rogers medical; Man Utd deal

    medical · near completetone: speculativevia rule-based:v1source
  25. 20 Jul 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal news: Morgan Rogers' three reasons for snub as Gunners enquire about £110m hijack

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  26. 20 Jul 2026Tier 4Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal news: Morgan Rogers' three reasons for snub as Gunners enquire about £110m hijack

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  27. 20 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: New Arsenal targets; Rogers medical; Man Utd exit

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  28. 20 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: New Arsenal targets; Rogers medical; Man Utd exit

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  29. 20 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: New Arsenal targets; Rogers medical; Man Utd coup

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  30. 20 Jul 2026Tier 4TEAMtalkpolled

    Arsenal revive Nico Williams interest after Bradley Barcola uncertainty and Morgan Rogers blow

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  31. 20 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Why Arsenal FC missed out on Morgan Rogers despite clear Mikel Arteta transfer demand

    denial · contradictedtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — missed out on Morgan Rogers
  32. 20 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Why Arsenal missed out on Rogers despite clear Arteta transfer demand

    denial · contradictedtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  33. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4Football365polled

    Arsenal top Premier League £100m-plus transfers ranking as Rogers joins

    official · officialtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  34. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal respond to Morgan Rogers transfer snub as £34m signing flies in for medical

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  35. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal respond to Morgan Rogers transfer snub as £34m signing flies in for medical

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  36. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal target Rashford, Guimaraes talks; Chelsea sign Rogers; Man Utd, Liverpool latest

    talks · active talkstone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  37. 22 Jul 2026Tier 3Football Londonpolled

    Arsenal made enquiry for £94m Morgan Rogers alternative

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  38. 22 Jul 2026Tier 3Football Londonpolled

    Arsenal made enquiry for £94m Morgan Rogers alternative

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  39. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4Football365polled

    Arsenal told to sign 'frightening' £19m star after Rogers blow - 'really talented player'

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  40. 24 Jul 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled

    Arsenal news: Gunners move for £94m Morgan Rogers alternative as transfer announcement made

    official · officialtone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source