← Board/player transfer · updated 17 Jul 2026· graded collapsed
Mateus Fernandes
Tottenham Hotspur → Manchester United
0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
55%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability22 → 0|Viability55 → 5517 Jul 2026
Outcome graded: collapsed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
Score movement
- 17 Jul 202622 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
- 04 Jul 2026— → 22A source has denied / contradicted this
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+24 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+0 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Contradiction penalty−22 pts
Probability0%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CM
- Age
- 22
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2031
- Market value
- €32m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Manchester United
- Stated needs
- CDM, ST, CB
- Budget (est.)
- €90m
- Wage headroom
- 45/100
- PSR pressure
- 65/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Manchester United’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 01 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled
No signings, no sales - what is happening at Manchester United?
- — have missed out