← Board/player transfer · updated 11 Aug 2026· graded collapsed

Yan Diomande

RB Leipzig → Arsenal

0%Speculative

Probability

Viability

70%

can it happen structurally

Tactical fit

n/a

no expert vector yet

Financial difficulty

Low

Why this score?

Probability41 → 0|Viability70 → 7011 Aug 2026

Outcome graded: collapsed. 5 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.

Score movement

11 Aug 202641 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 5 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
06 Aug 202639 → 41An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
05 Aug 202672 → 39An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
31 Jul 202654 → 72An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
31 Jul 202627 → 54An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
25 Jul 202635 → 27An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
25 Jul 202654 → 35An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
24 Jul 202646 → 54An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
19 Jul 2026— → 46This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28

+17 pts

Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16

+16 pts

Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14

+12 pts

Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12

+10 pts

Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10

+8 pts

Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08

+4 pts

Window timingDerived×0.06

+2 pts

Contract situationDerived×0.06

+2 pts

Market oddsUnavailable×0.00

+0 pts

Probability71%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position: RW, LW, ST
Age: 19
Nationality: Ivory Coast
Contract until: 30 Jun 2030
Market value: €45m
Preferred foot: right

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs: ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.): €120m
Wage headroom: 65/100
PSR pressure: 35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

18 Jul 2026Tier 4Now.arsenalpolled
Yan Diomande in talks to sign for Arsenal as per Fabrizio Romano
talks · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
23 Jul 2026Tier 4This Is Anfieldpolled
Arsenal join Yan Diomande enquiries: PSG yet to close deal a month later
interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
23 Jul 2026Tier 3Goalpolled
Arsenal, Man City & Real Madrid willing to match Liverpool's €100m Yan Diomande transfer bid as RB Leipzig star awaits green light from PSG
agreement close · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
25 Jul 2026Tier 4Football365polled
Arsenal reach decision on signing Yan Diomande after hijack 'calls' and €100m Real Madrid bid
interest · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
25 Jul 2026Tier 4Football365polled
Fabrizio Romano reveals Yan Diomande response to Arsenal as Real Madrid plan ‘new bid’
interest · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
26 Jul 2026Tier 4AOL.co.ukpolled
Yan Diomande to Arsenal transfer latest – £85m bid made, Berta deals with worst case scenario
bid submitted · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource