TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 27 Jul 2026

Yan Diomande

RB Leipzig → Arsenal

27%Possible
Probability
27%
Viability
70%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low

Why this score?

Probability35 → 27|Viability70 → 7025 Jul 2026

  • ▪An agreement is reported to be close
  • ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  • ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club

Score movement

  1. 25 Jul 202635 → 27An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  2. 25 Jul 202654 → 35An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 24 Jul 202646 → 54An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  4. 19 Jul 2026— → 46This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+12 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+8 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−27 pts
Probability27%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
RW, LW, ST
Age
19
Nationality
Ivory Coast
Contract until
30 Jun 2030
Market value
€45m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs
ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.)
€120m
Wage headroom
65/100
PSR pressure
35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Competing for Yan Diomande

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Evidence timeline

  1. 18 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Yan Diomande in talks to sign for Arsenal as per Fabrizio Romano - now.arsenal

    talks · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal join Yan Diomande enquiries: PSG yet to close deal a month later - This Is Anfield

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal, Man City & Real Madrid willing to match Liverpool's €100m Yan Diomande transfer bid as RB Leipzig star awaits green light from PSG - Goal.com

    agreement close · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  4. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal reach decision on signing Yan Diomande after hijack 'calls' and €100m Real Madrid bid - Football365

    interest · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  5. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Fabrizio Romano reveals Yan Diomande response to Arsenal as Real Madrid plan ‘new bid’ - Football365

    interest · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource