TransferSignal

← Board/contract extension · updated 08 Oct 2026

Aaron Long

LAFC → Liverpool

73%Advanced
Probability
73%
Viability
67%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low

Why this score?

Probability76 → 73|Viability69 → 6708 Oct 2026

  • ▪An agreement is reported to be close
  • ▪Multiple independent sources agree
  • ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

Score movement

  1. 08 Oct 202676 → 73An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  2. 01 Oct 202632 → 76An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  3. 23 Sept 202658 → 32Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  4. 04 Sept 202658 → 58Window closed with no completed deal on record for this player. Expired, not graded — no completed transfer exists either way, and our data has coverage gaps, so no source's accuracy is moved on an ambiguity.
  5. 30 Aug 202664 → 58Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  6. 18 Aug 202661 → 64Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  7. 17 Aug 202658 → 61Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  8. 06 Aug 202655 → 58Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  9. 31 Jul 202644 → 55Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  10. 18 Jul 2026— → 44This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+17 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+16 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+8 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+2 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+4 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability73%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CB
Age
33
Nationality
United States
Contract until
31 Dec 2027
Market value
€1m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Liverpool

Stated needs
CB, ST
Budget (est.)
€130m
Wage headroom
70/100
PSR pressure
25/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Liverpool’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 17 Jul 2026Tier 3Liverpool Echopolled

    Dominik Szoboszlai signs new long-term Liverpool contract

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  2. 17 Jul 2026Tier 4Liverpool FCpolled

    Dominik Szoboszlai signs new long-term Liverpool contract

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  3. 17 Aug 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Liverpool handed injury boost as signing makes long-awaited debut

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  4. 18 Aug 2026Tier 3Evening Standardpolled

    Liverpool handed injury boost as signing makes long-awaited debut

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  5. 23 Sept 2026Tier 3Liverpool Echopolled

    12 Liverpool players set for extra work as injured pair eye long-awaited return

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia rule-based:v1source
  6. 23 Sept 2026Tier 3Liverpool Echopolled

    12 Liverpool players set for extra work as injured pair eye long-awaited return

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia rule-based:v1source
  7. 01 Oct 2026Tier 4Rousing The Koppolled

    Crysencio Summerville reveals long-term plan after Liverpool transfer talks confirmed

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  8. 06 Oct 2026Tier 4TEAMtalkpolled

    Liverpool reject claims that £26m star could leave after one game as FSG secure long-term fix for vital position

    monitoring · speculativetone: speculativevia rule-based:v1source
    • — bid rejected