← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded collapsed
Ben White
Arsenal → Newcastle United
0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
64%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability29 → 0|Viability64 → 6404 Sept 2026
Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
Score movement
- 04 Sept 202629 → 0Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
- 06 Aug 202625 → 29An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 05 Aug 202652 → 25An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 18 Jul 2026— → 52An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+4 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability53%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- RB, CB
- Age
- 28
- Nationality
- United Kingdom
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2028
- Market value
- €30m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Newcastle United
- Stated needs
- RW, CB
- Budget (est.)
- €80m
- Wage headroom
- 50/100
- PSR pressure
- 75/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Newcastle United’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 17 Jul 2026Tier 4The Magpolled
Newcastle United official announcement as Joe White signs for Crewe Alexandra