← Board/player transfer · updated 23 Aug 2026· graded collapsed
Marcus Rashford
Manchester United → Liverpool
0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
74%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
86
expert opinion · best role LW
Financial difficulty
Low
Why this score?
Probability19 → 0|Viability74 → 7423 Aug 2026
Outcome graded: collapsed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
Score movement
- 23 Aug 202619 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
- 11 Aug 202633 → 19This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 06 Aug 202630 → 33This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 03 Aug 202633 → 30This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 26 Jul 2026— → 33This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+7 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+4 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability22%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- LW, ST
- Age
- 28
- Nationality
- United Kingdom
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2028
- Market value
- €40m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Liverpool
- Stated needs
- CB, ST
- Budget (est.)
- €130m
- Wage headroom
- 70/100
- PSR pressure
- 25/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Liverpool’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 26 Jul 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled
Marcus Rashford 'would do a lot of good at Liverpool' after Man Utd transfer clause expires