← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded collapsed
Gabriel Jesus
Barcelona → Al Hilal
Why this score?
Probability50 → 0|Viability62 → 6204 Sept 2026
Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
Score movement
- 04 Sept 202650 → 0Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
- 30 Aug 2026— → 50An agreement is reported to be close · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- ST
- Age
- 29
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2027
- Market value
- €17m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Al Hilal
- Stated needs
- —
- Budget (est.)
- —
- Wage headroom
- —
- PSR pressure
- —
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Al Hilal’s Possible XI →Competing for Gabriel Jesus
The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.
- Al Hilal this rumour0%
- Arsenalearly interest32%
Evidence timeline
- 30 Aug 2026Tier 2Sky Sportspolled
Arsenal agree £55.7m club-record Gabriel Martinelli sale to Al Hilal with deal also agreed in principle with Barcelona for Gabriel Jesus