← Board/player transfer · updated 23 Aug 2026· graded collapsed
Tijjani Reijnders
Manchester City → Nottingham Forest
0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
55%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability40 → 0|Viability55 → 5523 Aug 2026
Outcome graded: collapsed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
Score movement
- 23 Aug 202640 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
- 06 Aug 202637 → 40Rescored on new evidence
- 04 Aug 2026— → 37Rumour created from first claim
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability32%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CM
- Age
- 28
- Nationality
- Kingdom of the Netherlands
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2030
- Market value
- €50m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Nottingham Forest
- Stated needs
- —
- Budget (est.)
- —
- Wage headroom
- —
- PSR pressure
- —
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Nottingham Forest’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 04 Aug 2026Tier 4Wednesday's Gossippolled
Forest target Reijnders