TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 23 Aug 2026· graded collapsed

James Trafford

Manchester City → Newcastle United

0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
59%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability22 → 0|Viability59 → 5923 Aug 2026

Outcome graded: collapsed. 5 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.

Score movement

  1. 23 Aug 202622 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 5 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
  2. 06 Aug 202620 → 22Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 06 Aug 202628 → 20Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  4. 31 Jul 202620 → 28Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  5. 27 Jul 202618 → 20The player is being pursued by more than one club
  6. 23 Jul 20261 → 18The player is being pursued by more than one club
  7. 23 Jul 202611 → 1A newer, higher-tier report superseded an earlier claim · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  8. 23 Jul 202616 → 11A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  9. 23 Jul 202626 → 16A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  10. 23 Jul 202640 → 26A formal bid has been reported · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  11. 19 Jul 2026— → 40A formal bid has been reported

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+11 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability32%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
GK
Age
23
Nationality
United Kingdom
Contract until
30 Jun 2030
Market value
€25m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Newcastle United

Stated needs
RW, CB
Budget (est.)
€80m
Wage headroom
50/100
PSR pressure
75/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Newcastle United’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 19 Jul 2026Tier 3Chronicle Livepolledsuperseded

    James Trafford transfer decision made as Newcastle United step up goalkeeper bid

    bid submitted · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 19 Jul 2026Tier 3Chronicle Livepolledsuperseded

    James Trafford transfer decision made as Newcastle United step up goalkeeper bid

    interest · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4SB Nationpolledsuperseded

    James Trafford ‘Not Brought Up’ Internally As Newcastle Transfer Target: Report

    denial · contradictedtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — ‘Not Brought Up’ Internally As Newcastle Transfer Target
  4. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4The Magpolled

    Newcastle United have decided against signing James Trafford and considering two alternatives

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia rule-based:v1source
  5. 24 Jul 2026Tier 4Read Newcastlepolled

    David Ornstein drops James Trafford to Newcastle United transfer news

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  6. 27 Jul 2026Tier 4NewcastleWorldpolled

    Bye bye James Trafford - Newcastle United identify No.1 goalie target for £26m

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source