TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 11 Aug 2026· graded collapsed

Mohamed Salah

— → Beşiktaş J.K. (Football)

0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability18 → 0|Viability62 → 6211 Aug 2026

Outcome graded: collapsed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.

Score movement

  1. 11 Aug 202618 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
  2. 06 Aug 202613 → 18The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 05 Aug 202629 → 13The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  4. 04 Aug 202637 → 29The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  5. 31 Jul 202626 → 37The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  6. 28 Jul 202635 → 26The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  7. 27 Jul 2026— → 35The player is entering the final window of their contract

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Competing destinations−5 pts
Probability22%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
RW, ST
Age
33
Nationality
Egypt
Contract until
30 Jun 2027
Market value
€30m
Preferred foot
left

Buying club · Beşiktaş J.K. (Football)

Stated needs
—
Budget (est.)
—
Wage headroom
—
PSR pressure
—

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Beşiktaş J.K. (Football)’s Possible XI →

Competing for Mohamed Salah

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Evidence timeline

  1. 27 Jul 2026Tier 2Transfermarktpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Salah to set to make Besiktas decision as Tottenham chase Savinho

    unknown · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource