TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 01 Aug 2026

Bruno Guimarães

Newcastle United → Paris Saint-Germain

5%Speculative
Probability
5%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
88
expert opinion · best role CM
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability— → 5|Viability— → 6201 Aug 2026

  • ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club

Score movement

Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.

  1. 01 Aug 2026— → 5The player is being pursued by more than one club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−30 pts
Probability5%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CM, CDM
Age
28
Nationality
Spain
Contract until
30 Jun 2028
Market value
€75m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Paris Saint-Germain

Stated needs
—
Budget (est.)
—
Wage headroom
—
PSR pressure
—

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Paris Saint-Germain’s Possible XI →

Competing for Bruno Guimarães

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Evidence timeline

  1. 01 Aug 2026Tier 4Footballtransfers.compolled

    Secret PSG deal emerges after Guimaraes transfer takes unexpected twist: FT Recap

    unknown · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource