← Board/player transfer · updated 11 Aug 2026· graded collapsed
Bruno Guimarães
Newcastle United → Paris Saint-Germain
0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
88
expert opinion · best role CM
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability9 → 0|Viability62 → 6211 Aug 2026
Outcome graded: collapsed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
Score movement
- 11 Aug 20269 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
- 06 Aug 20265 → 9The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 01 Aug 2026— → 5The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+4 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability22%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CM, CDM
- Age
- 28
- Nationality
- Spain
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2028
- Market value
- €75m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Paris Saint-Germain
- Stated needs
- —
- Budget (est.)
- —
- Wage headroom
- —
- PSR pressure
- —
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Paris Saint-Germain’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 01 Aug 2026Tier 4Footballtransfers.compolled
Secret PSG deal emerges after Guimaraes transfer takes unexpected twist: FT Recap