← Board/outgoing · updated 30 Oct 2026
Junior Kroupi
Bournemouth → Arsenal
68%Advanced
Probability
68%
Viability
69%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low
Why this score?
Probability65 → 68|Viability69 → 6930 Oct 2026
- ▪An agreement is reported to be close
- ▪Multiple independent sources agree
- ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
- ▪The player's preference is reported to favour the move
Score movement
- 30 Oct 202665 → 68An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
- 30 Oct 202622 → 65An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
- 30 Sept 202644 → 22Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
- 04 Sept 202644 → 44Window closed with no completed deal on record for this player. Expired, not graded — no completed transfer exists either way, and our data has coverage gaps, so no source's accuracy is moved on an ambiguity.
- 06 Aug 202641 → 44This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
- 17 Jul 2026— → 41This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+14 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+8 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+6 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability68%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- ST, CAM
- Age
- 20
- Nationality
- France
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2030
- Market value
- €70m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Arsenal
- Stated needs
- ST, CF, CDM
- Budget (est.)
- €120m
- Wage headroom
- 65/100
- PSR pressure
- 35/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Arsenal’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 02 Jul 2026Tier 4Football365polled
Bournemouth reach decision on selling Eli Junior Kroupi to Tottenham or Arsenal
- 30 Sept 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled
Arsenal and Spurs could reignite battle for £80m-rated Kroupi as he nears return
- 30 Oct 2026Tier 4FootballTransfers.compolled
Arsenal in dreamland as Eli Junior Kroupi makes official transfer statement
- 30 Oct 2026Tier 4LiveScorepolled
Arsenal in dreamland as Eli Junior Kroupi makes official transfer statement