← Board/outgoing · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded confirmed
Lisandro Martínez
Manchester United → Chelsea
100%Done / awaiting official
Probability
100%
Viability
70%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability63 → 100|Viability70 → 7004 Sept 2026
Window close: a completed transfer confirms this move. Graded confirmed.
Score movement
- 04 Sept 202663 → 100Window close: a completed transfer confirms this move. Graded confirmed.
- 30 Aug 2026— → 63An agreement is reported to be close · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+21 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+7 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+6 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability64%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CB, LB
- Age
- 28
- Nationality
- Argentina
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2027
- Market value
- €40m
- Preferred foot
- left
Buying club · Chelsea
- Stated needs
- ST, GK
- Budget (est.)
- €100m
- Wage headroom
- 55/100
- PSR pressure
- 70/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Chelsea’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 30 Aug 2026Tier 2The Guardianpolled
Emiliano Martínez finally gets his Villa exit with £7.5m move to Chelsea