← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded collapsed

Carlos Baleba

Manchester United → Arsenal

0%Speculative

Probability

Viability

66%

can it happen structurally

Tactical fit

n/a

no expert vector yet

Financial difficulty

Medium

Why this score?

Probability68 → 0|Viability66 → 6604 Sept 2026

Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.

Score movement

04 Sept 202668 → 0Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
23 Aug 202666 → 68An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
19 Aug 202656 → 66An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
19 Aug 2026— → 56An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28

+17 pts

Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16

+11 pts

Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14

+12 pts

Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12

+10 pts

Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10

+6 pts

Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08

+2 pts

Window timingDerived×0.06

+2 pts

Contract situationDerived×0.06

+4 pts

Market oddsUnavailable×0.00

+0 pts

Probability64%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position: CDM, CM
Age: 22
Nationality: Cameroon
Contract until: 30 Jun 2028
Market value: €55m
Preferred foot: left

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs: ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.): €120m
Wage headroom: 65/100
PSR pressure: 35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

19 Aug 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled
Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal medical, Alvarez offer, Baleba to Man Utd
medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
19 Aug 2026Tier 3Evening Standardpolled
Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal medical, Alvarez offer, Baleba to Man Utd
medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
19 Aug 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled
Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal medical, Alvarez offer, Baleba to Man Utd
medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
19 Aug 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled
Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal medical, Alvarez offer, Baleba to Man Utd
medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
19 Aug 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled
Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal medical, Alvarez offer, Baleba to Man Utd
medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
21 Aug 2026Tier 4TalkSPORTpolled
Konsa joins Arsenal, Man United agree Baleba fee, Chelsea reject Mudryk loan bid
agreement close · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
- — bid rejected
24 Aug 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled
Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal in Alvarez talks, Baleba has Man Utd medical
medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source