← Board/player transfer · updated 28 Aug 2026· graded collapsed

Savinho

Manchester City → Liverpool

0%Speculative

Probability

Viability

65%

can it happen structurally

Tactical fit

n/a

no expert vector yet

Financial difficulty

Low

Why this score?

Probability37 → 0|Viability65 → 6528 Aug 2026

Outcome graded: collapsed. 3 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.

Score movement

28 Aug 202637 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 3 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
22 Aug 202640 → 37An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
21 Aug 202648 → 40An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
21 Aug 202650 → 48An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
21 Aug 202638 → 50An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
10 Aug 202648 → 38Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
06 Aug 202645 → 48Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
04 Aug 202635 → 45Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
03 Aug 2026— → 35This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28

+17 pts

Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16

+11 pts

Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14

+12 pts

Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12

+10 pts

Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10

+7 pts

Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08

+2 pts

Window timingDerived×0.06

+2 pts

Contract situationDerived×0.06

+2 pts

Market oddsUnavailable×0.00

+0 pts

Probability63%

Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position: LW, RW, ST
Age: 22
Nationality: Brazil
Contract until: 30 Jun 2031
Market value: €35m
Preferred foot: left

Buying club · Liverpool

Stated needs: CB, ST
Budget (est.): €130m
Wage headroom: 70/100
PSR pressure: 25/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Liverpool’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

03 Aug 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled
Spurs target Gakpo amid Savinho chase as Liverpool stance made clear
interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
04 Aug 2026Tier 3Evening Standardpolled
Spurs target Gakpo amid Savinho chase as Liverpool stance made clear
interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
21 Aug 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled
Transfer news LIVE: Savinho set for Tottenham MEDICAL, Liverpool pursue Minteh
medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
21 Aug 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled
Transfer news LIVE: Savinho's Tottenham MEDICAL, Liverpool's Minteh bid REJECTED
medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
- — bid rejected
21 Aug 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled
Transfer news LIVE: Liverpool get Barcola and Mbaye BOOSTS, Savinho set for Tottenham MEDICAL, Goretzka to Villa
medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source