← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded collapsed
Trevoh Chalobah
Chelsea → Aston Villa
0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
51%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability4 → 0|Viability51 → 5104 Sept 2026
Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
Score movement
- 04 Sept 20264 → 0Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
- 06 Aug 20262 → 4The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 03 Aug 202629 → 2The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 31 Jul 202630 → 29Rescored on new evidence
- 17 Jul 2026— → 30Rumour created from first claim
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+24 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+4 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+2 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+4 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Impossibility penalty−15 pts
Probability22%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CB
- Age
- 27
- Nationality
- United Kingdom
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2028
- Market value
- €40m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Aston Villa
- Stated needs
- CM, LW
- Budget (est.)
- €60m
- Wage headroom
- 40/100
- PSR pressure
- 80/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Aston Villa’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 13 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled
Villa assess Estupinan move - Tuesday's gossip
- — club say not for sale