← Board/player transfer · updated 23 Jul 2026
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Lille OSC → Arsenal
30%Possible
Probability
30%
Viability
63%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low
Why this score?
Probability49 → 30|Viability63 → 6323 Jul 2026
- ▪An agreement is reported to be close
- ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club
Score movement
- 23 Jul 202649 → 30An agreement is reported to be close · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 17 Jul 2026— → 49An agreement is reported to be close
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+12 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+8 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−19 pts
Probability30%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CM
- Age
- 18
- Nationality
- France
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2029
- Market value
- €40m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Arsenal
- Stated needs
- ST, CF, CDM
- Budget (est.)
- €120m
- Wage headroom
- 65/100
- PSR pressure
- 35/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Arsenal’s Possible XI →Competing for Ayyoub Bouaddi
The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.
- Arsenal this rumour30%
- Liverpooladvanced21%
Evidence timeline
- 03 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
Arsenal agree to Lille’s request with €80m Ayyoub Bouaddi transfer now on - Football365