← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded collapsed
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Manchester City → Arsenal
0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
63%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low
Why this score?
Probability49 → 0|Viability63 → 6304 Sept 2026
Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
Score movement
- 04 Sept 202649 → 0Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
- 16 Aug 202646 → 49An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 15 Aug 202647 → 46An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 06 Aug 202645 → 47An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 31 Jul 202630 → 45An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 23 Jul 202649 → 30An agreement is reported to be close · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 17 Jul 2026— → 49An agreement is reported to be close
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+24 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+11 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+12 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+8 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability69%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CM
- Age
- 18
- Nationality
- France
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2029
- Market value
- €50m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Arsenal
- Stated needs
- ST, CF, CDM
- Budget (est.)
- €120m
- Wage headroom
- 65/100
- PSR pressure
- 35/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Arsenal’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 03 Jul 2026Tier 4Football365polled
Arsenal agree to Lille’s request with €80m Ayyoub Bouaddi transfer now on
- 31 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled
Arsenal transfer rumours: Ayyoub Bouaddi
- 16 Aug 2026Tier 3Football Londonpolled
Ayyoub Bouaddi transfer update after Arsenal 'talks' with Man City target
- 16 Aug 2026Tier 3Football Londonpolled
Ayyoub Bouaddi transfer update after Arsenal 'talks' with Man City target