← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded collapsed
Lisandro Martínez
Manchester United → Liverpool
0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
78%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low
Why this score?
Probability22 → 0|Viability78 → 7804 Sept 2026
Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
Score movement
- 04 Sept 202622 → 0Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
- 30 Aug 202649 → 22This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 06 Aug 202643 → 49This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract
- 19 Jul 2026— → 43This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+8 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability22%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CB, LB
- Age
- 28
- Nationality
- Argentina
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2027
- Market value
- €40m
- Preferred foot
- left
Buying club · Liverpool
- Stated needs
- CB, ST
- Budget (est.)
- €130m
- Wage headroom
- 70/100
- PSR pressure
- 25/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Liverpool’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 19 Jul 2026Tier 4This Is Anfieldpolled
Why Liverpool can’t complete £750,000 Samuel Martinez transfer until 2027