TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 23 Aug 2026· graded collapsed

Marcus Rashford

Manchester United → Arsenal

0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
77%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
86
expert opinion · best role LW
Financial difficulty
Low

Why this score?

Probability59 → 0|Viability77 → 7723 Aug 2026

Outcome graded: collapsed. 4 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.

Score movement

  1. 23 Aug 202659 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 4 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
  2. 13 Aug 202656 → 59An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 11 Aug 202637 → 56An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  4. 06 Aug 202633 → 37This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  5. 03 Aug 202640 → 33This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  6. 26 Jul 202645 → 40This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  7. 22 Jul 202644 → 45This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  8. 22 Jul 202626 → 44This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  9. 04 Jul 2026— → 26A newer, higher-tier report superseded an earlier claim · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+17 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+11 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+12 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+8 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+4 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability67%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
LW, ST
Age
28
Nationality
United Kingdom
Contract until
30 Jun 2028
Market value
€40m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs
ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.)
€120m
Wage headroom
65/100
PSR pressure
35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 29 Jun 2026Tier 3Football Londonpolledsuperseded

    Declan Rice just sent Marcus Rashford Arsenal transfer plea to Mikel Arteta

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal target Rashford, Guimaraes talks; Chelsea sign Rogers; Man Utd, Liverpool latest

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Can Arsenal sign Rashford for £40m from Man Utd this summer?

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  4. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal target Rashford, Guimaraes talks; Chelsea sign Rogers; Man Utd, Liverpool latest

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  5. 11 Aug 2026Tier 3Manchester Evening Newspolled

    Man United transfer news LIVE: Tchouameni medical blow, Arsenal star 'offered', Rashford update

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  6. 12 Aug 2026Tier 4GiveMeSportpolled

    3 Winners and 4 Losers if Arsenal Complete Marcus Rashford Transfer

    interest · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource