← Board/player transfer · updated 26 Oct 2026
Sandro Tonali
Tottenham Hotspur → Newcastle United
21%Possible
Probability
21%
Viability
54%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability10 → 21|Viability54 → 5426 Oct 2026
- ▪Multiple independent sources agree
- ▪The player only joined this club in the current window, so a speculative link away is discounted
Score movement
- 26 Oct 202610 → 21Multiple independent sources agree · The player only joined this club in the current window, so a speculative link away is discounted
- 30 Sept 2026— → 10The player only joined this club in the current window, so a speculative link away is discounted
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+17 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+4 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability21%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CDM, CM
- Age
- 26
- Nationality
- Italy
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2028
- Market value
- €80m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Newcastle United
- Stated needs
- RW, CB
- Budget (est.)
- €80m
- Wage headroom
- 50/100
- PSR pressure
- 75/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Newcastle United’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 30 Sept 2026Tier 4NewcastleWorldpolled
'I'm 100%' - Sandro Tonali tells Italian media how he really feels after £100m Newcastle United exit
- 02 Oct 2026Tier 4NewcastleWorldpolled
Sandro Tonali mocked after £100m Newcastle United exit - 'rubbing our hands'
- 26 Oct 2026Tier 3Chronicle Livepolled
£100m is crazy for 'average' Tonali - my Newcastle United team-mates would be worth £200m