TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 27 Oct 2026

Neco Williams

Nottingham Forest → Arsenal

70%Advanced
Probability
70%
Viability
51%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability68 → 70|Viability51 → 5127 Oct 2026

  • ▪An agreement is reported to be close
  • ▪Multiple independent sources agree

Score movement

  1. 27 Oct 202668 → 70An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree
  2. 26 Oct 202665 → 68An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree
  3. 26 Oct 202632 → 65An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree
  4. 26 Oct 202652 → 32Multiple independent sources agree
  5. 04 Sept 202652 → 52Window closed with no completed deal on record for this player. Expired, not graded — no completed transfer exists either way, and our data has coverage gaps, so no source's accuracy is moved on an ambiguity.
  6. 06 Aug 202649 → 52Rescored on new evidence
  7. 31 Jul 202639 → 49Rescored on new evidence
  8. 21 Jul 2026— → 39Rumour created from first claim

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+16 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+2 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability70%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
LB, CB
Age
25
Nationality
United Kingdom
Contract until
30 Jun 2029
Market value
€28m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs
ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.)
€120m
Wage headroom
65/100
PSR pressure
35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 21 Jul 2026Tier 2ESPNpolled

    Transfer rumors, news: Arsenal to move for Spain World Cup winner Williams

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 21 Jul 2026Tier 2ESPNpolled

    Transfer rumors, news: Arsenal to move for Spain World Cup winner Williams

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 26 Oct 2026Tier 4FootballTransfers.compolled

    Nico Williams sends official transfer message to Arsenal

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  4. 26 Oct 2026Tier 4FourFourTwopolled

    Arsenal target Nico Williams confirms why he turned down Premier League champions

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
    • — bid rejected
  5. 26 Oct 2026Tier 4LiveScorepolled

    Nico Williams sends official transfer message to Arsenal

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source
  6. 27 Oct 2026Tier 4AOL.co.ukpolled

    Nico Williams sets the record straight after agent confirmed Arsenal interest

    official · officialtone: definitivevia rule-based:v1source