← Board/player transfer · updated 10 Oct 2026
Mario de Luis
Atlético Madrid → Liverpool
59%Active interest
Probability
59%
Viability
61%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low
Why this score?
Probability49 → 59|Viability66 → 6110 Oct 2026
- ▪An agreement is reported to be close
- ▪Multiple independent sources agree
- ▪The player is entering the final window of their contract
Score movement
- 10 Oct 202649 → 59An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is entering the final window of their contract
- 04 Sept 202649 → 49Window closed with no completed deal on record for this player. Expired, not graded — no completed transfer exists either way, and our data has coverage gaps, so no source's accuracy is moved on an ambiguity.
- 16 Aug 202644 → 49Multiple independent sources agree · The player is entering the final window of their contract
- 16 Aug 2026— → 44The player is entering the final window of their contract
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+11 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+7 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability59%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- GK
- Age
- 24
- Nationality
- Spain
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2027
- Market value
- €0m
- Preferred foot
- left
Buying club · Liverpool
- Stated needs
- CB, ST
- Budget (est.)
- €130m
- Wage headroom
- 70/100
- PSR pressure
- 25/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Liverpool’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 16 Aug 2026Tier 4Daily Mirrorpolled
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- 16 Aug 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled
Luis Enrique gives frosty three-word reply as both Liverpool targets axed from PSG squad
- 10 Oct 2026Tier 4AnfieldWatchpolled
Liverpool Transfer News: Here we go, Reds about to sign their next Luis Suarez