TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded collapsed

Endrick

Real Madrid → Liverpool

0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
74%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low

Why this score?

Probability40 → 0|Viability74 → 7404 Sept 2026

Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.

Score movement

  1. 04 Sept 202640 → 0Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
  2. 09 Aug 202649 → 40This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 06 Aug 202644 → 49This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract
  4. 31 Jul 2026— → 44This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+7 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Competing destinations−9 pts
Probability32%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
ST, CAM, RW, CM
Age
20
Nationality
Brazil
Contract until
30 Jun 2030
Market value
€40m
Preferred foot
left

Buying club · Liverpool

Stated needs
CB, ST
Budget (est.)
€130m
Wage headroom
70/100
PSR pressure
25/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Liverpool’s Possible XI →

Competing for Endrick

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Evidence timeline

  1. 31 Jul 2026Tier 4TEAMtalkpolled

    Endrick reaches decision on Real Madrid future as Liverpool consider signing Brazilian striker

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource