← Board/player transfer · updated 24 Jul 2026
Rodri
Manchester City → Liverpool
18%Speculative
Probability
18%
Viability
66%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low
Why this score?
Probability37 → 18|Viability66 → 6624 Jul 2026
- ▪The player is entering the final window of their contract
- ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club
Score movement
- 24 Jul 202637 → 18The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 23 Jul 2026— → 37The player is entering the final window of their contract
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+7 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−19 pts
Probability18%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CDM, CM
- Age
- 30
- Nationality
- Spain
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2027
- Market value
- €75m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Liverpool
- Stated needs
- CB, ST
- Budget (est.)
- €130m
- Wage headroom
- 70/100
- PSR pressure
- 25/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Liverpool’s Possible XI →Competing for Rodri
The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.
- Liverpool this rumour18%
- Real Madridadvanced48%
Evidence timeline
- 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
Andoni Iraola uses Rodri as example of the mentality he wants at Liverpool - This Is Anfield