TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 23 Aug 2026· graded collapsed

Rodri

Manchester City → Liverpool

0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
66%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low

Why this score?

Probability24 → 0|Viability66 → 6623 Aug 2026

Outcome graded: collapsed. 2 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.

Score movement

  1. 23 Aug 202624 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 2 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
  2. 17 Aug 202628 → 24An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 11 Aug 202631 → 28An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  4. 09 Aug 202616 → 31An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  5. 06 Aug 202621 → 16The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  6. 06 Aug 202624 → 21The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  7. 06 Aug 202618 → 24The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  8. 24 Jul 202637 → 18The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  9. 23 Jul 2026— → 37The player is entering the final window of their contract

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+12 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+7 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability54%

Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CDM, CM
Age
30
Nationality
Spain
Contract until
30 Jun 2027
Market value
€50m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Liverpool

Stated needs
CB, ST
Budget (est.)
€130m
Wage headroom
70/100
PSR pressure
25/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Liverpool’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4This Is Anfieldpolled

    Andoni Iraola uses Rodri as example of the mentality he wants at Liverpool

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  2. 09 Aug 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Araujo to undergo Liverpool medical, Barca's new Rodri bid

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source