← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded collapsed
Gabriel Martinelli
Arsenal → Turkey
0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
63%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability10 → 0|Viability63 → 6304 Sept 2026
Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
Score movement
- 04 Sept 202610 → 0Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
- 16 Aug 202613 → 10A source has denied / contradicted this · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 15 Aug 2026— → 13A source has denied / contradicted this · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+10 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+0 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+6 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Contradiction penalty−10 pts
Probability15%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- LW, ST
- Age
- 25
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2027
- Market value
- €45m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club
Buying club not resolved.
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
Evidence timeline
- 15 Aug 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled
Arsenal transfer news LIVE: Quansah EXCLUSIVE, Martinelli 'REJECTS' Turkey move
- — 'REJECTS' Turkey move