← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded confirmed
Akane Okuma
— → Aston Villa
100%Done / awaiting official
Probability
100%
Viability
55%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability60 → 100|Viability55 → 5504 Sept 2026
Window close: a completed transfer confirms this move. Graded confirmed.
Score movement
- 04 Sept 202660 → 100Window close: a completed transfer confirms this move. Graded confirmed.
- 06 Aug 202657 → 60An agreement is reported to be close
- 31 Jul 202658 → 57An agreement is reported to be close
- 21 Jul 2026— → 58An agreement is reported to be close
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+24 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+6 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+4 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+3 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability61%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
Player not resolved to a known squad — scored on reporting signals only.
Buying club · Aston Villa
- Stated needs
- CM, LW
- Budget (est.)
- €60m
- Wage headroom
- 40/100
- PSR pressure
- 80/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Aston Villa’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 21 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled
Japan goalkeeper Okuma signs for Aston Villa