← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded confirmed
Fábio Vieira
Porto → Arsenal
100%Done / awaiting official
Probability
100%
Viability
65%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low
Why this score?
Probability62 → 100|Viability65 → 6504 Sept 2026
Window close: a completed transfer confirms this move. Graded confirmed.
Score movement
- 04 Sept 202662 → 100Window close: a completed transfer confirms this move. Graded confirmed.
- 30 Aug 202644 → 62Multiple independent sources agree
- 30 Aug 2026— → 44Rumour created from first claim
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+24 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+6 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+8 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+3 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability48%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CM
- Age
- 26
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Contract until
- —
- Market value
- —
- Preferred foot
- —
Buying club · Arsenal
- Stated needs
- ST, CF, CDM
- Budget (est.)
- €120m
- Wage headroom
- 65/100
- PSR pressure
- 35/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Arsenal’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 30 Aug 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled
Hamburg in advanced talks for Arsenal's Vieira
- 30 Aug 2026Tier 4BBCpolled
Arsenal transfer news: Hamburg in advanced talks to buy Fabio Vieira