TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 23 Aug 2026· graded collapsed

Rodri

Manchester City → Real Madrid

0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
66%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability37 → 0|Viability66 → 6623 Aug 2026

Outcome graded: collapsed. 3 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.

Score movement

  1. 23 Aug 202637 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 3 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
  2. 17 Aug 202640 → 37Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 11 Aug 202643 → 40Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  4. 06 Aug 202657 → 43Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  5. 06 Aug 202664 → 57Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  6. 06 Aug 202661 → 64Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  7. 06 Aug 202655 → 61Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  8. 28 Jul 202648 → 55Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  9. 24 Jul 2026— → 48The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+24 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+11 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+9 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+6 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability68%

Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CDM, CM
Age
30
Nationality
Spain
Contract until
30 Jun 2027
Market value
€50m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Real Madrid

Stated needs
—
Budget (est.)
—
Wage headroom
—
PSR pressure
—

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Real Madrid’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 24 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Real Madrid confident of signing Rodri - Saturday's gossip

    interest · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 25 Jul 2026Tier 2Transfermarktpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Rodri to Real Madrid move gathers pace as Arsenal plot Alvarez swap

    interest · active talkstone: cautiousvia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 27 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Man City brace for Rodri bid - Tuesday's gossip

    interest · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  4. 28 Jul 2026Tier 2Sky Sportspolled

    Rodri transfer news: Man City hopeful World Cup winner will sign new deal but braced for Real Madrid bid - Paper Talk

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource