← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded collapsed

Jeremy Toljan

Levante Arsenal

0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
65%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability00|Viability656504 Sept 2026

Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.

Score movement

  1. 04 Sept 202600Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
  2. 06 Aug 2026100A newer, higher-tier report superseded an earlier claim · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 05 Aug 20263710The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  4. 04 Jul 202637The player is entering the final window of their contract

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+0 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+0 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+0 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability22%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
RB, CB
Age
32
Nationality
United States
Contract until
30 Jun 2027
Market value
€2m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs
ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.)
€120m
Wage headroom
65/100
PSR pressure
35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 29 Jun 2026Tier 4BBCpolledsuperseded

    Arsenal transfer rumours: Jeremy Monga

    unknown · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource