← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Jul 2026

Jeremy Toljan

Levante Arsenal

37%Possible
Probability
37%
Viability
65%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability37|Viability6504 Jul 2026

  • The player is entering the final window of their contract

Score movement

Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.

  1. 04 Jul 202637The player is entering the final window of their contract

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability37%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
RB, CB
Age
31
Nationality
United States
Contract until
30 Jun 2027
Market value
€4m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs
ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.)
€120m
Wage headroom
65/100
PSR pressure
35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 29 Jun 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal transfer rumours: Jeremy Monga - BBC

    unknown · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource