← Board/player transfer · updated 23 Oct 2026
Bruno Fernandes
Manchester United → Liverpool
48%Active interest
Probability
48%
Viability
66%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low
Why this score?
Probability35 → 48|Viability71 → 6623 Oct 2026
- ▪Multiple independent sources agree
- ▪The player is entering the final window of their contract
Score movement
- 23 Oct 202635 → 48Multiple independent sources agree · The player is entering the final window of their contract
- 04 Sept 202635 → 35Window closed with no completed deal on record for this player. Expired, not graded — no completed transfer exists either way, and our data has coverage gaps, so no source's accuracy is moved on an ambiguity.
- 06 Aug 202630 → 35The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 26 Jul 202644 → 30The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 24 Jul 2026— → 44The player is entering the final window of their contract
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+6 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+8 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability48%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CAM, CM
- Age
- 32
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2027
- Market value
- €35m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Liverpool
- Stated needs
- CB, ST
- Budget (est.)
- €130m
- Wage headroom
- 70/100
- PSR pressure
- 25/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Liverpool’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 23 Jul 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled
Transfer news LIVE: Liverpool £100m deal, Bruno Fernandes Man Utd decision, Arsenal in talks
- 23 Oct 2026Tier 4Liverpool.compolled
Liverpool scouts watching $66M talent who was chosen ahead of Bruno Fernandes