← Board/player transfer · updated 11 Aug 2026· graded collapsed
Vinícius Júnior
Real Madrid → Liverpool
0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
74%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low
Why this score?
Probability30 → 0|Viability74 → 7411 Aug 2026
Outcome graded: collapsed. 3 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
Score movement
- 11 Aug 202630 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 3 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
- 06 Aug 202625 → 30A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 01 Aug 202630 → 25A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 31 Jul 202615 → 30A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 26 Jul 202612 → 15A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 26 Jul 202615 → 12A source has denied / contradicted this · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 25 Jul 202620 → 15A source has denied / contradicted this · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 25 Jul 202617 → 20A source has denied / contradicted this · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 25 Jul 2026— → 17A source has denied / contradicted this · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+11 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+6 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+7 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Contradiction penalty−3 pts
Probability48%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- LW, ST, CM
- Age
- 26
- Nationality
- Spain
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2027
- Market value
- €140m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Liverpool
- Stated needs
- CB, ST
- Budget (est.)
- €130m
- Wage headroom
- 70/100
- PSR pressure
- 25/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Liverpool’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 25 Jul 2026Tier 4This Is Anfieldpolled
Liverpool ‘opt against’ Vinicius Jr. transfer despite offer from player’s camp
- — ‘opt against’ Vinicius Jr. transfer
- 25 Jul 2026Tier 4TEAMtalkpolled
Liverpool respond after Vinicius Junior offered in blockbuster Real Madrid deal
- 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Yahoo Sports UKpolled
Liverpool stance on Vinicius Jr. transfer after approach and Arsenal move