TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded collapsed

Gabriel Martinelli

Arsenal → Galatasaray

0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
60%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability41 → 0|Viability60 → 6004 Sept 2026

Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.

Score movement

  1. 04 Sept 202641 → 0Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
  2. 28 Aug 202640 → 41A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 16 Aug 202643 → 40A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  4. 15 Aug 202646 → 43A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  5. 14 Aug 202650 → 46A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  6. 13 Aug 202637 → 50A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  7. 12 Aug 202629 → 37A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  8. 10 Aug 2026— → 29A formal bid has been reported · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+21 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+14 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+6 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+6 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+2 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Contradiction penalty−6 pts
Probability48%

Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
LW, ST
Age
25
Nationality
Brazil
Contract until
30 Jun 2027
Market value
€45m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club

Buying club not resolved.

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

Evidence timeline

  1. 10 Aug 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled

    Arsenal transfer news LIVE: Barcola 'HIJACK', Galatasaray 'bid' for Martinelli, West Ham 'explore' Nelson move

    bid submitted · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 12 Aug 2026Tier 4Thursday's Gossippolled

    Galatasaray submit Martinelli bid

    bid submitted · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 13 Aug 2026Tier 2The Guardianpolled

    Football transfer rumours: Galatasaray to spend £38m on Arsenal’s Martinelli?

    interest · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  4. 14 Aug 2026Tier 2Sky Sportspolled

    Arsenal transfer latest: Why Martinelli rejected Galatasaray - and could it affect Barcola pursuit?

    denial · contradictedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — Martinelli rejected Galatasaray