← Board/player transfer · updated 11 Aug 2026· graded collapsed
Vinícius Júnior
Real Madrid → Tottenham Hotspur
0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
72%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability20 → 0|Viability72 → 7211 Aug 2026
Outcome graded: collapsed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
Score movement
- 11 Aug 202620 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
- 06 Aug 202615 → 20This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 01 Aug 202620 → 15This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 26 Jul 2026— → 20This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability22%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- LW, ST, CM
- Age
- 26
- Nationality
- Spain
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2027
- Market value
- €140m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Tottenham Hotspur
- Stated needs
- CM, CB
- Budget (est.)
- €110m
- Wage headroom
- 60/100
- PSR pressure
- 30/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Tottenham Hotspur’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 26 Jul 2026Tier 4The Mirrorpolled
Arsenal news: Real Madrid's stance on selling Vinicius Jr as shock Tottenham deal emerges