TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 23 Aug 2026· graded confirmed

James Trafford

Manchester City → Leeds United

100%Done / awaiting official
Probability
100%
Viability
55%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability61 → 100|Viability55 → 5523 Aug 2026

Outcome graded: confirmed. 4 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.

Score movement

  1. 23 Aug 202661 → 100Outcome graded: confirmed. 4 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
  2. 06 Aug 202659 → 61An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 06 Aug 202654 → 59An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  4. 31 Jul 202639 → 54Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  5. 23 Jul 202643 → 39A source has denied / contradicted this · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  6. 23 Jul 202645 → 43A source has denied / contradicted this · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  7. 23 Jul 202637 → 45Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  8. 23 Jul 2026— → 37The player is being pursued by more than one club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+24 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+14 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability71%

Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
GK
Age
23
Nationality
United Kingdom
Contract until
30 Jun 2030
Market value
€25m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Leeds United

Stated needs
—
Budget (est.)
—
Wage headroom
—
PSR pressure
—

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Leeds United’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 23 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Leeds in talks to sign Man City keeper Trafford

    talks · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4FourFourTwopolled

    Newcastle United stand aside as Leeds United close in on James Trafford transfer: report

    interest · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Yahoo Sports UKpolled

    Newcastle United stand aside as Leeds United close in on James Trafford transfer: report

    interest · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — Newcastle United stand aside
  4. 24 Jul 2026Tier 43 Added Minutespolled

    Forget James Trafford: Newcastle’s perfect new goalkeeper target is obvious as Leeds United close in

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  5. 06 Aug 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Trafford joins Leeds from Man City in potential £45m deal

    official · officialtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
James Trafford to Leeds United — 100% likely · TransferSignal