← Board/player transfer · updated 23 Aug 2026· graded confirmed
Brennan Johnson
Crystal Palace → Everton
100%Done / awaiting official
Probability
100%
Viability
59%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability61 → 100|Viability59 → 5923 Aug 2026
Outcome graded: confirmed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
Score movement
- 23 Aug 202661 → 100Outcome graded: confirmed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
- 11 Aug 2026— → 61An agreement is reported to be close · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+21 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+6 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability60%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- RW, LW, ST
- Age
- 25
- Nationality
- United Kingdom
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2030
- Market value
- €30m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Everton
- Stated needs
- —
- Budget (est.)
- —
- Wage headroom
- —
- PSR pressure
- —
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Everton’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 11 Aug 2026Tier 2The Guardianpolled
Crystal Palace and Everton seal Brennan Johnson-Dwight McNeil swap deal